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OLM 20141229A The Prime Factors

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 29 December 2014, at 11:44 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141229A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

7/6 11/9 gives 17 rolls to bear off next roll and will always be off in two.

7/6 3/1 gives 18 rolls to bear off next roll and will always be off in two.

7/6 4/2 or 7/5 3/2 give 19 rolls to bear off next roll but risks needing 3 rolls if next roll is 21. 7/6 4/2 is better here because a 12 could be played 11/10 3/1 giving 29 good rolls.

Is the immediate good roll worth a 14/1296 chance of needing 3 rolls? Our opponents have roughly a 1/6 chance of being off in 2 rolls since will probably need double 4s or better in next two rolls. They might need 4 or more rolls but being off in 3 seems to be the most likely with a ratio of off in exactly 3 to off in exactly 2 exceeding 36 to 14.

Thus, play 7/6 3/1

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