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Try your favorite race formula...analysis

Posted By: Kevin McDonough
Date: Tuesday, 30 December 2014, at 1:03 a.m.

In Response To: Try your favorite race formula with this one (Kevin McDonough)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 70
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 64
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCBBB---AbB------aaaabeb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.76% (G:0.03% B:0.00%) 78.88% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.24% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 21.12% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.575 +1.155
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.843 (-0.157)
Double/Take:+1.015 (+0.015)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Keith count has this as "no double." Isight method does a little better with "double/take" mostly because it penalizes white for the two extra crossovers, but it apparently underestimates the wastage with white's 5 men on the two point. Just how bad is this formation? By a simple smoothing of white's position (3 men on each of the 1-3 points) the pip count and Isight count remain the same, but white picks up 1/2 of 1% winning chances. Not much, but enough to create a skinny "take".

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