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Yes, Virginia, there is a totally safe play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 30 December 2014, at 1:38 a.m.

In Response To: Yes, Virginia, there is a totally safe play (Timothy Chow)

Since I'm not posting that many positions to BGO nowadays, the safe bet is that I'm not bluffing (by which I mean posting a position with an obvious QF play but where the bot play isn't the QF play). See, however, the variant.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 89
Unlimited Game
pip: 105
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aCaC-B-B--C-B----a-cbbbc-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout111/5 8/5eq: +0.285
Player:
Opponent:
57.95% (G:9.53% B:0.32%)
42.05% (G:7.91% B:0.05%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.277...+0.294) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout111/2eq: +0.216 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
55.26% (G:4.94% B:0.12%)
44.74% (G:4.48% B:0.07%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.208...+0.224) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout113/4eq: +0.174 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
53.70% (G:5.47% B:0.14%)
46.30% (G:5.30% B:0.05%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.166...+0.181) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 96
Unlimited Game
pip: 105
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aCaC-B-B--C-B---aa-cbbbb-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout111/2eq: +0.264
Player:
Opponent:
56.86% (G:4.54% B:0.10%)
43.14% (G:4.61% B:0.07%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.255...+0.272) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 8/5eq: +0.234 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
57.22% (G:8.62% B:0.33%)
42.78% (G:8.85% B:0.06%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.226...+0.243) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout113/4eq: +0.227 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
55.53% (G:4.81% B:0.11%)
44.47% (G:5.29% B:0.06%)
Conf.: 0.008 (+0.219...+0.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 28 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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