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Why so bad?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 4 January 2015, at 4:45 p.m.

In Response To: Why so bad? (Mike Clapsadle)

The play choice isn't particularly score-based. The wrong play is an awful blunder in an unlimited match, too.

Cubeless, the right play wins about 11% more games, all of them gammons. But you see that in the rollout details.

At the score the right play wins even more than 70% of the time, since you will have a double out after a fan. That's 44.4% wins right there. You'll lose most but not all of the 5/36 hitting returns. On the other 42% (rolls that enter but don't hit) you have a double in and rate to win about 3/4 of the time. Total wins about 75%. So the cubeless gammons don't matter much - after the best play you either cash or play with a 4-cube or lose (or take a 2-cube in a few sequence hit-return hit sequences). Compare to the wrong play, which leaves you a solid favorite, but with only about 60% wins, and very little cube power at the score.

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