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OLM 20150105A The Prime Factors DECISION

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 6 January 2015, at 9:46 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150105A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)

This is a very tricky position. If we try to develop the midpoint or advance our anchor, we cannot simultaneously clean up the blot on our 8pt. That means that 24/20 and 13/9 are both bold plays that volunteer two blots when the alternative 8/4 would leave none.

The final tally was:

  • 8/4 3 votes
  • 24/20 1.5 votes
  • 13/9 8.5 votes

Your comments are below.

Decision: 13/9

Mike

Teammate Original Move Move in Consultation
Bob Koca 24/20 One of the reasons given against 24/20 is that should not split against a formation that is more blitzish than primish. The loose hits though will be much less effective given that we have our best three point board. I don't have a strong preference for 24/20. 13/9 is my 2nd choice.
Casper Van der Tak Behind in the by a lot race, and with an additional exposed blot, I do not want to split. So I build. Then 13/9 is the only play to add a builder for the 3-point. 13/9 The only play to develop the stack on the mid and create a builder for the 3. We are a lot behind in the race, need to hang on to our anchor, and prepare to convert hits into wins. The risks of leaving two blots?! With what numbers is it right to hit, and how sure are you? If you have troubles with these questions, that should tell you that the cost of leaving the blots is limited.
Chuck Bower Typical least-of-evils kind of position. We don't want to split with a blot in our outer board, and it's usually wrong to split off the 24-point when all opp has added is his (blitzing) 2-point. 13/9 looks a bit loose given opp's strippage and hunger to make something happen. Ditto with 3(2). That just leaves... 8/4
Daniel Murphy We're several moves into the game but recall that splitting is not usually best in response to an opening 64, pointing. Here splitting steps into opponent's improved forward position with spares not well placed but ready, if we split, for blitzing (or priming), with numbers small and big that can be used to attack either or both blots. Meanwhile our main strength is our 3 point board (and our secondary strength is our anchor). We can build on that: 13/9. Still 13/9.
Fatboy Coming down from the midpoint is the play, going behind 8/4 is too weak, 24/20 is weak too... 13/9 is the plan, it looks the scariest-that's for sure but if we dont get hit there is something to work with.
garyo 9 - too many enemy checkers in the zone to split now. at least we have a playable 1 next turn the mid point stack is an eyesore
Havard Raddum 8/4 looks too passive when we have the board to afford to be somewhat bold. I'd rather play 24/20 then, sort of duplicates aces too. The only thing I fear by stepping up with 24/20 are the numbers that allow the opps to make the five point. There are nine such numbers, or even 10 fi we include 44, so maybe the risk is not as small as perceived after all... I'm now undecided between 13/9 and 24/20.
Igor With the 2pt made, 10 checkers in the zone for Dillies, and our race deficit, splitting is out of the question. I'm not sure whether 13/9 is the right idea or a huge blunder, so to minimize possible equity loss I will choose the simple 8/4. We are behind in the race and have a much better board. So, the idea is to "create noise" and initiate as much contact as possible with the point Dillies want to clear. They certainly won't be hitting with all numbers. Also, 13/9 unstacks the heavy midpoint. So, in the end it looks like I talked myself into 13/9.
kruidenbuiltje With the better board I am not so scared of splitting here. The problem is however that we also have a slotted blot. Splitting and slotting is too risky. I will vote for 8/4 as a preparation for a split next move. Still on the 8/4 team, the rest is just too risky.
lenny 8/4. Don't want to be blitzed at this score.
Seth 8/4 is nice and safe for time being but let's go for their 5 point: 24/20 13/9-if hit, we have some returns-let's unstack our midpoint
Steve Mellen 8/4 I feel pretty strongly that 24/20 is the wrong idea, but I am pretty indifferent between the fancy 13/9 and the stodgy 8/4. I guess 13/9 is probably best.
Taper_Mike Although splitting from the 24pt or unstacking the midpoint might be worth leaving one shot, I am afraid to volunteer a double-shot. 4 (Digit4) = 8/4 I was immediately attracted to 13/9 when I read about it in the original voting.

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