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Xavier Response

Posted By: __1ERROR1__
Date: Wednesday, 7 January 2015, at 5:02 a.m.

In Response To: Better PR, Better Luck and still loosing ! (__1ERROR1__)

As I got no convincing answer (a little bit confusing in some cases!) here, I decided to ask Xavier about the detail and here is complete answer:

You are looking at the luck data in term of Normalize equity. For equity the score and cube value will not reflect the effect of luck on winning the match. As you can see you had +1.314 normalize equity, however it translate to -55.30% of mwc. So in term of match winning chances you got unlucky. If you look at the “luck” tab in the summary window, click on “Show as equity” and “show as cost” to see how it varies at the match get to its ends. · On game one, you got 1.4 equity, translating into 8% mwc · On game 9 you got -0.18 equity, translating into -52% mwc

This is because move 16 of game 9: the cube is at 4. There is a -1.068 swing on that move, that translate in 53% of mwc lost If the same roll would happened at 11 away/1 away cube center, it would be -1.290 equity but only 6.23% mwc lost

One a single match you are better off looking at mwc. Equity will be better on the long run or on the very short term (comparing the luck of one move).

In term of mwc, Result=Luck+skill. In that case: · Result =-50% (you start at 50% chances to win, and you ended up at 0%) · Luck = -55.30%

So Skill = result – luck = -50%+55.30= 5.30%

It differs some for the analyze (6.11% mwc lost by you, 13.20% lost by your opponent, netting 7.09%) because it uses different level (4ply for luck, XGR+ for the analyze).

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