As a general rule of thumb, one should keep attacking with 10+ checkers in the zone and consider a constructive (point making) move otherwise. For example, it would be a huge blunder to make the 2pt with 54, as mentioned by Trice:
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 139
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aB-Ba-CAA--AdC---d-e----B-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/4* | eq: +0.583 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.60% (G:45.20% B:0.48%)
32.40% (G:8.81% B:0.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.573...+0.592) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/6 8/4* | eq: +0.433 (-0.150) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.13% (G:37.84% B:0.46%)
35.87% (G:8.87% B:0.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.423...+0.442) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/2 6/2 | eq: +0.334 (-0.249) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.23% (G:33.88% B:0.36%)
37.77% (G:9.71% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.325...+0.342) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98331093
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
However, 5pt is the 5pt and making it should always be considered as a candidate move. Trice actually recommends making the 5pt here, however, hitting is just a tad better since we have 11 checkers in the zone after the hit. This position shows the power of 5pt even in a blitz!
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 139
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aB-Ba-CAA--AdC---d-e----B-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/4* | eq: +0.553 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.98% (G:43.10% B:0.50%)
33.02% (G:8.50% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.549...+0.556) - [100.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 7/5 | eq: +0.544 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.80% (G:38.56% B:0.57%)
32.20% (G:7.05% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.541...+0.548) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31291109
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I believe Neil had the most relevant insight into what is going on here. After the hit, we don't have hitting sixes from the bar if white hits us back! This is probably the main reason making the 5pt is a contender. Here is a variant to illustrate this point:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aB-Ba-CAA-A-dC---d-e----B-:1:-1:1:52:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 6/4* | eq: +0.603 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.13% (G:44.93% B:0.51%)
31.87% (G:8.13% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.595...+0.610) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/5 7/5 | eq: +0.550 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.87% (G:38.45% B:0.62%)
32.13% (G:7.09% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.544...+0.556) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98331093
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I definitely learned something here thanks to Neil's comment.