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Only MCG got this one right

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 9 January 2015, at 4:43 p.m.

In Response To: Only MCG got this one right (Phil Simborg)

I remain amazed at how bad some strong players are at positions like this. All that is needed is a little math and knowing a few basic short bearoff positions.

1) Since White has a trivial money take with 3 checkers on the ace pt here, this position with 10 winning rolls rather than 6 is obviously one of the easiest money takes ever. This fact alone should convince Blue with his 4-1 lead that he probably should just keep the cube safely on 2 this turn.

2) If Blue still isn't convinced to roll he can take a look at White's recube point. If Blue wins with the cube on 4, he leads 8-1/11 and that is 87% (use NN if you can't remember). Thus White will be risking 13% ME to recube to 8 and giving Blue a point of overage. Obviously, in a dead cube last roll situation White can recube with less than 50%. If White Wins with the cube on 4 he has about 56.2% ME, if he wins with the cube on 8, he leads 2a7a for about 84.2%. Thus White risks 13% to gain 28% by recubing.

Looking at 1) and 2) no way in hell is this a recube for Blue AtS.

Should White recube after Blue's mediocre 51? Looking at 2) most probably but lets do a little math and estimate how often White wins and note that the cube on rare occasions could have a bit of value to him on the last roll if he holds it now.

After Blue's 51 White wins 10/36 immediate. 26/36 of the time Blue will fail to bear off 7/36 of the time and White will win most of those.

So lets break it down to 1296 games. White wins 360 + a large percentage of 182 more games. Lets say White wins 90% of those 182 games. Now we have White winning about a total of 522 games after Blue's mediocre 51 roll. Divide 522 by 13 and you see that White wins over 40% from there and of course has a recube AtS.

Easy problem. Clear no recube for Blue AtS, and clear recube for White after 51 assuming Blue has blundered and recubed.

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