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Only MCG got this one right
Posted By: Wolfgang
Date: Friday, 9 January 2015, at 9:09 p.m.
In Response To: Only MCG got this one right (Phil Simborg)
As for the game winning chances (GWC), I tried to form an estimate by means of a casebycase analysis. But I reckon, I reduced the complexity too much. When I sum up the probabilities (bold font), the sum is only 94.8%. Hence, 5.2% are missing.
 Blue wins instantly by rolling 66, 55, or 44 in the next roll: 3/36 ~ 8.3%
 Blue bears 2 checkers off in the next roll: 14/36 ~ 38.9%
 White bears 2 checkers off and wins: 14/36 * 10/36 ~ 10.8%
 White bears 1 or 0 checkers off: 14/36 * 26/36 ~ 28.1% (in this case Blue will win nearly always (let's say almost 90%): ~25%)
 Blue bears 1 checker off in the next roll: 19/39 ~ 52.7%
 White bears 2 checkers off and wins: 19/36 * 10/36 ~ 14.7%
 White bears 1 or 0 checkers off: 19/36 * 26/36 ~38.1%
 Blue bears the 2 remaining checkers off and wins (I reckon that Blue will bear his checkers off in two thirds of the cases): 38.1% * 2/3 ~ 25%
 Again, Blue bears only 1 checker off which may happen in one third of the cases: 38.1% * 1/3 ~ 12.7%. White will then win nearly always, almost 90%. So: ~11%
Provided that the diagram above is not too bad, White has a game winning chance of 36.5%. If Blue doubles, White will definitely have a chance to redouble unless Blue rolls 66, 55, or 44.
White's takepoint (dead) is about 25%. Her live takepoint will be much lower. About 20%, I guess, but I'm not sure. Therefore, at this score Blue is too far away from Whites TP. White would have a big take.

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