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Cube from New York Liberty Masters ROLLOUT

Posted By: Bruce Farquhar
Date: Sunday, 11 January 2015, at 2:55 a.m.

In Response To: Cube from New York Liberty Masters (Bruce Farquhar)

Looked like a tough take. An awful lot of rolls hit. In fact XG says 47.3% market losers. However there are some rolls where XG would refrain from hitting and there are also a lot of bad rolls in particular 6-1 6-2 6-3 and 2-1 and 3-1 for a total of 29.6% anti-jokers. This volatility and the counter-play referred to in other comments contribute to make it a big take. The giant who passed this took a full three and a half minutes to consider their decision so I don't feel so bad getting this one wrong myself when I was watching the match ;)





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 124
11 point match
pip: 132
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BaBDBB--aa---Abcdc-A-A-:0:0:-1:00:1:3:0:11:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.13% (G:21.45% B:1.43%) 67.26% (G:22.10% B:1.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.87% (G:10.53% B:0.66%) 32.74% (G:10.76% B:0.71%)
Cubeless Equities +0.477 +0.995
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.598 (-0.061)±0.013 (+0.586..+0.611)
Double/Take:+0.660±0.020 (+0.639..+0.680)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.340)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 47 minutes 23 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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