[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

What's the TP? (RO here also)

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 11 January 2015, at 3:43 p.m.

In Response To: Cube from NY Metro Open last night (Christian Munk-Christensen)

The TP here is 37.45% ie very high. Thus this is only a .82 take. Therefore, it really could be a pass considering it is a no skill 4 cube vs a player 100 elo worse.

With all due respect, I think that both Stick and the Fish book go too far in adjusting for skill for things like this, however, there's a really good chance that a player 3 elo stronger should pass this.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 72
11 point match
pip: 72
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ACBCBB----A--A--aaebc-ba-:2:1:1:00:1:5:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.799% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 57.791% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.201% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 42.209% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.1560 +0.8203
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.7096 (-0.1106)±0.0007 (+0.7089..+0.7104)
Redouble/Take:+0.8203±0.0001 (+0.8202..+0.8203)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1797)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.