OT - Two Point Conversion Yesterday (Need Your Input, Chuck)
Posted By: trichard
Date: Monday, 12 January 2015, at 8:52 p.m.
Should Green Bay Have Attempted A Two-Point Conversion Instead Of Kicking The Extra Point? In yesterday's NFL playoff game, Green Bay scored a touchdown to be down 21-19 with 1:00 left in the third quarter, and decided to settle for the one-point kick instead of going for the two-point conversion. I think this was a mistake.
The defense of settling for one point was that there was likely to be more scoring in the game, so it was too soon to gamble on a two point conversion. I don't see the logic in this. Whether or not there is more scoring, a tied game would seem to offer significantly better winning chances than a one point deficit.
In the NFL, the success rate on two point conversions is 48%. Let's look at a few possible scenarios:
There's a lot more scoring – This is too complicated to figure, but obviously, the importance of the decision becomes less significant the more scoring there is.
The two point conversion succeeds –Tied game. Green Bay has a 50-50 chance of winning (slightly reduced because Dallas is next to get the ball).
The two point conversion fails - The score is 21-19.
Dallas fails to score, Green Bay wins with a field goal or touchdown. (Same result if Green Bay had kicked the extra point)
Dallas scores a touchdown, leads 28-19, Green Bay needs a touchdown and a field goal which wins 29-28 (if Green Bay had kicked the extra point, they would need a touchdown and a two point conversion to tie, a touchdown and a field goal to win 29-28).
Dallas scores a field goal, leads 24-19, Green Bay needs a touchdown to win, same result as if they had gone for the extra point.
Dallas scores two field goals to go up 27-19, Green Bay needs a touchdown and a two-point conversion to tie 27-27, would have tied by kicking the extra point at 21-19.
Dallas fails to score again, ends up with 21 points, Green Bay scores a field goal to win 22-21 (the same outcome if they had kicked the extra point).
It appears that trying the two point conversion would have given Green Bay a chance to tie the game, which would seem to outweigh all the other scenarios. If they miss the two point conversion, there are two scenarios – the second and the fourth – where they can later use a two point conversion to tie, otherwise it is immaterial.
Have I overlooked anything here? Where have I gone wrong?
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