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BGonline.org Forums
It's not just about what XG says
Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: Handicap Backgammon. One start with cube. (eXtreme Gammon)
Date: Tuesday, 20 January 2015, at 4:32 p.m.
While I would never refute anything Xavier or XG says, Xavier's analysis completely ignores the human factors and assumes both players will always make the correct checker and cube decisions.
Mochy's original question relates to a live game between two humans, and while the XG information is useful, we must also consider the human factors.
For example, it is logical to assume that the better player is probably also better at reading his opponent and finding flaws in his opponent's game and exploiting them. And of course, there are more flaws to exploit, so this gives the better player an additional edge, and I don't think that is a small edge at all.
There is also money pressure...if either player has problems giving or taking 8 cubes and higher, and of course, that assumes the stakes are high enough to put pressure on the players. It is conceivable that the weaker play could have an edge in this department, and that could affect the outcome.
And of course, there are players with very low PR's that simply don't have that much money-play experience, and that could tilt the scale as well.
If I played Mochy 100 games, I am sure he would find some areas where I have some consistant problems, both with the cube and checker play, and he certainly is sharp enough to exploit those. So even if we truly were 3 PR apart, he should win more because of those explotations.
Of course, there are other factors that XG and Xavier don't consider:
1. Distractions. Anyone playing me must be able to deal with this issue.
2. Cheating. (I have never been caught cheating, though I was accused of it in an important match in LA playing an Armenian when I had rolled 3 big doubles in a row and one of his slaves got in my face and said I wasn't rolling properly and it was very suspicious.) But as I teach all my students, when you play for money, with anyone, anywhere, you should always be alert to the possiblity of crooked dice or crooked people (except on line, where nobody cheats). By the way, I have done a careful study of people I know to be honest players, and when they make an illegal move, 86.4% of the time it just happens to be in their favor.
3. Money management. If the bet is who will come out ahead after a certain number of games, and not on total points won, then there is a money-management factor that XG does not consider. A player that is ahead or behind absolutely should change his tactics, especially when you get down toward the end of a session.
4. Knowledge of the player. I have a huge edge on Mochy in this department. I know with great certainty what he is likely to do in each situation, and he can't begin to guess what I might do. Try putting that into XG!
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