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BGonline.org Forums
Two Lessons in one Position
Posted By: HOMINID In Response To: Two Lessons in one Position (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 20 January 2015, at 6:40 p.m.
Well there's more than two lessons here so I'm not going to try and solve that problem. At the end of the day in any backgammon position the problem can be resolved if you have a good knowledge of roll odds. Often it is very difficult to find a solution even with this method. This position is a doddle. Blue is winning the race but the game is pretty even. Blue has a problem it's his runner. We have to determine whether this is the moment to move up to the 20 point or wait a roll. Will it be pointed on, 55, 44 33 11 and 53 do the job.. That's six rolls or 16%. Will it be hit loose? lets count them.I got up to about 30 rolls or about 85%. It is unlikely to be pointed on but very likely to be hit loose. ooh ahhh does not sound good, but if hit loose I'm still very much in the game. A 90% entry chance and a 48% chance of hitting the blot. What if I wait, 7/4 5/4 seems obvious. The runner problem still exists and white gets a free roll. The spares on 17 15 and 12 give about 13 rolls that make a point and the problem gets worse., go for it now 23/20. Don't waste that one-shot think about it 7/6. Your prime can be made up again with a six from the 13 point together with the fact the 4 spares created about 15 chances to make a bome point. No 5/4 an unfriendly visitor is on the cards. It took much longer to type this out than it did to think it through. Please forgive any figure errors there only ball park but are good enough to show the way.
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