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Two Lessons in one Position - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 21 January 2015, at 7:16 p.m.

In Response To: Two Lessons in one Position (Stick)

Some of you were able to put your finger on both important aspects of the position. First and foremost, our game plan is to escape our back checker with our big racing lead. If we don't move up this turn it only gets harder to move up and out the longer we wait. If we wait to move up the opponent could do something as good as make a new point (bar point, 5pt, 4pt) or simply bring another man into the zone. Waiting also works on the assumption the dice will be cooperative which they may not be. We must move up now with 23/20.

Now to the ace. 5/4 looks naturally. It's a builder that wants to topple over onto the next point we'd like to make. It doesn't address what is about to immediately happen though. Since our racing lead is so large and our game plan is to run, the opponent's game plan is to play against that hitting us (loose) if need be. That means there will be action immediately, a potential hitting exchange. Any time the action is so foreseeable we should take care when leaving blots in our home board. It is best to keep a clean inner board for such a scenario by playing 7/6.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 121
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B---CBBBb--cC-c-c-b--bA--:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout123/20 7/6eq: +0.103
Player:
Opponent:
51.84% (G:15.98% B:0.23%)
48.16% (G:7.78% B:0.25%)
Conf.: 0.012 (+0.091...+0.115) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 52 seconds
2.Rollout123/20 5/4eq: +0.061 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
50.61% (G:17.75% B:0.26%)
49.39% (G:8.45% B:0.29%)
Conf.: 0.013 (+0.049...+0.074) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout17/4 5/4eq: +0.028 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
50.83% (G:13.98% B:0.18%)
49.17% (G:6.29% B:0.21%)
Conf.: 0.011 (+0.017...+0.039) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 50 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73007030
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release

Stick

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