Trice suggests that volunteering a shot is the right play, but it just can't be right; not with the cube still in the middle.
        
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 99 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 85
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BCBBBbB----Ba-b--bb-bbb-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/1 | eq: +0.463 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.84% (G:1.16% B:0.03%)
34.16% (G:1.45% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.456...+0.470) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: +0.423 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.38% (G:1.48% B:0.06%)
33.62% (G:1.37% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.421...+0.426) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7.3 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/1 | eq: +0.422 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.75% (G:1.22% B:0.03%)
36.25% (G:1.87% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.415...+0.428) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: +0.410 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.44% (G:1.52% B:0.06%)
36.56% (G:0.99% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.403...+0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54310978
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Turn the cube and paying now naturally goes up in relative equity, but it's still wrong.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 99 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 85
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BCBBBbB----Ba-b--bb-bbb-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/1 | eq: +0.232 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.99% (G:1.12% B:0.03%)
34.01% (G:1.52% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.227...+0.236) - [100.0%]
Duration: 36.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: +0.213 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.48% (G:1.53% B:0.06%)
33.52% (G:1.42% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.210...+0.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.3 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/1 | eq: +0.183 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.89% (G:1.23% B:0.03%)
36.11% (G:2.02% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.179...+0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.7 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: +0.180 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.65% (G:1.46% B:0.04%)
36.35% (G:0.98% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.175...+0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.8 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54310978
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Can we make the pay now play to be best? Sure, you should consider paying now when playing inside your home board really puts too many checkers on deep points thus hurting your racing chances.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 99 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 83
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ABBBBBbB----Ba-b--bb-bbb-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: +0.249 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.08% (G:1.71% B:0.05%)
31.92% (G:1.57% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.246...+0.252) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22.6 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/1 | eq: +0.236 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.12% (G:1.13% B:0.01%)
33.88% (G:1.59% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.232...+0.241) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.6 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/1 | eq: +0.222 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.37% (G:1.54% B:0.04%)
34.63% (G:1.63% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.217...+0.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.4 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: +0.204 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.67% (G:1.60% B:0.04%)
35.33% (G:0.95% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.200...+0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.7 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54310978
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Now to the question of the cube position. Is the original position a double before the roll? From my study of holding games I know that the standard 18pt holding game with no spares is a double with at least 20% race lead, but it assumes essentially a perfect position for the trailer:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 105 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 88
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBBBCbB----Bb---abbbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 65.87% (G:0.87% B:0.02%) | 66.27% (G:0.81% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.13% (G:1.42% B:0.03%) | 33.73% (G:1.61% B:0.04%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.312 | +0.634 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.490 (-0.001) | ±0.001 (+0.488..+0.491) |
| Double/Take: | +0.491 | ±0.002 (+0.488..+0.493) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.509) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13737390
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 76.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 42 minutes 10 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
In the OP the race lead is only 16-17%, but the trailer's position is a bit weaker and you can also argue for one or two extra pips due to wastage, so adjusting from the above reference position we see that it's a proper technical double.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 99 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 85
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BCBBBbB----Ba-b--bb-bbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.98% (G:1.25% B:0.04%) | 67.37% (G:1.22% B:0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.02% (G:1.13% B:0.02%) | 32.63% (G:1.28% B:0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.341 | +0.694 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.494 (-0.028) | ±0.006 (+0.488..+0.500) |
| Double/Take: | +0.521 | ±0.009 (+0.512..+0.530) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.479) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 29233380
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10