Thank you for sharing this, Mochy. Here is a rollout:
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 104 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 83
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ABBBBBbB----Ba-aa-bbbbb--:1:-1:1:45:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 45 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: +0.219 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.58% (G:0.69% B:0.02%)
34.42% (G:2.15% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.217...+0.220) - [94.3%]
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/1 | eq: +0.217 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.89% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
35.11% (G:2.28% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.215...+0.219) - [5.7%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45699281
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I guessed that based on this position, 25% race lead is the critical juncture. With smaller race lead you can't afford to waste pips by dumping checkers deep and paying now should be correct, while with bigger race lead you can afford some wastage. Here are several variants I tried:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 106 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 83
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ABBBBBbB----Baaa--bbbbb--:1:-1:1:45:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 45 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: +0.238 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.61% (G:0.71% B:0.03%)
33.39% (G:2.16% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.235...+0.241) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/1 | eq: +0.218 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.91% (G:0.86% B:0.01%)
35.09% (G:2.41% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.213...+0.222) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.8 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45699281
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 101 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 83
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-ABBBBBbB----B-a-aabbbbb--:1:-1:1:45:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 45 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/1 | eq: +0.212 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.82% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
35.18% (G:2.18% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.208...+0.217) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: +0.188 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.29% (G:0.72% B:0.05%)
36.71% (G:2.71% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.185...+0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44.4 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45699281
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I don't really know what to make of it and any further insight is highly appreciated.