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bearoff cube decision AtS

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 22 January 2015, at 6:56 p.m.

In Response To: bearoff cube decision AtS (Chuck Bower)

This position didn't come up in real life (for me, anyway), but a similar one did and I modified it to find the real cube takepoint. This is it. So if you're just trying to "get the right answer" then you did, if you tried, because it doesn't matter if you take or pass.

But there was a lesson for me, and maybe for you, too. Because the buried cube takepoint (takepoint if Blue buries the cube, promising never to use it) is 22.7% Cubeless Game Winning Chances (cGWC) whereas the 100% efficient cube takepoint (assuming Blue will be able to redouble at a point that White will have no difference in his drop/take decision) is 17.0%.

The value of the below position is that it tells what the cube efficiency is for such a late game drop/take decision and it's only about 39% efficient, not the typical/canonical 70%. This is found by seeing how far the real cube takepoint (20.5% found in the rollout) is between the buried cube takepoint and the perfectly efficient recube takepoint.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 27
7 point match
pip: 33
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----DAB------------bb--ba-:0:0:-1:00:3:2:0:7:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.532% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 79.531% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.468% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 20.469% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5906 +1.0947
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8124 (-0.1876)±0.0020 (+0.8104..+0.8144)
Double/Take:+1.0064 (+0.0064)±0.0023 (+1.0041..+1.0086)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19554309
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4.1 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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