BGonline.org Forums

XGR++ Eval and 3-Ply Normal / XGR Rollouts Are PR thieves.

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Saturday, 24 January 2015, at 12:47 p.m.

There I was happily cruising to a 0 PR game when XGR++ dinged me -0.017 for this!:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 110 7 point match pip: 103 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A---CDCBb--cB-----cc--bb-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 33

1.	XG Roller++	13/10(2) 7/4 5/2	eq: +0.951
	Player: Opponent: 78.50% (G:1.52% B:0.01%) 21.50% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/10(2) 8/5 7/4	eq: +0.947 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 78.85% (G:1.26% B:0.01%) 21.15% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
3.	XG Roller++	13/10(2) 8/5 6/3	eq: +0.942 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 78.50% (G:0.84% B:0.00%) 21.50% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
4.	XG Roller++	13/10(2) 8/2	eq: +0.941 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 78.12% (G:1.15% B:0.01%) 21.88% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
5.	XG Roller++	13/10(2) 6/3 5/2	eq: +0.939 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 78.10% (G:1.42% B:0.01%) 21.90% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
6.	XG Roller++	13/10(2) 7/4 6/3	eq: +0.937 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 78.56% (G:1.71% B:0.01%) 21.44% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
7.	XG Roller++	13/10(2) 7/4(2)	eq: +0.935 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 79.73% (G:0.49% B:0.00%) 20.27% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
8.	XG Roller++	13/10(2) 8/5(2)	eq: +0.931 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 78.21% (G:0.90% B:0.01%) 21.79% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
9.	XG Roller++	13/7(2)	eq: +0.926 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 79.17% (G:0.05% B:0.00%) 20.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.	XG Roller++	7/4(2) 6/3(2)	eq: +0.781 (-0.171)
	Player: Opponent: 73.10% (G:0.91% B:0.02%) 26.90% (G:0.51% B:0.03%)

I don't normally run 3-Ply / XGR rollouts but here it is:

1.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 8/5 7/4	eq: +0.940
	Player: Opponent: 78.86% (G:1.60% B:0.01%) 21.14% (G:0.22% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.938...+0.941) - [100.0%] Duration: 18.3 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 7/4 6/3	eq: +0.932 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 79.05% (G:1.73% B:0.01%) 20.95% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.930...+0.934) - [0.0%] Duration: 35.1 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 7/4 5/2	eq: +0.931 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 78.78% (G:1.97% B:0.01%) 21.22% (G:0.33% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.930...+0.933) - [0.0%] Duration: 22.5 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 7/4(2)	eq: +0.930 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 78.96% (G:1.30% B:0.00%) 21.04% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.928...+0.931) - [0.0%] Duration: 33.7 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 8/5(2)	eq: +0.926 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 78.20% (G:1.51% B:0.01%) 21.80% (G:0.26% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.924...+0.928) - [0.0%] Duration: 39.2 seconds
6.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 6/3(2)	eq: +0.922 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 78.83% (G:0.87% B:0.00%) 21.17% (G:0.11% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.920...+0.924) - [0.0%] Duration: 56.1 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Hmmmmmmm....

So here's a stronger rollout:

1.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 7/4(2)	eq: +0.934
	Player: Opponent: 80.55% (G:0.37% B:0.00%) 19.45% (G:0.07% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.932...+0.935) - [90.8%] Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 7/4 6/3	eq: +0.932 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 80.40% (G:0.31% B:0.00%) 19.60% (G:0.05% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.930...+0.933) - [4.5%] Duration: 3 minutes 47 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 8/5 7/4	eq: +0.931 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 80.42% (G:0.39% B:0.00%) 19.58% (G:0.06% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.930...+0.933) - [2.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 44 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 7/4 5/2	eq: +0.931 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 80.12% (G:0.40% B:0.00%) 19.88% (G:0.11% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.929...+0.933) - [1.4%] Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/10(2) 8/5(2)	eq: +0.930 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 79.64% (G:1.06% B:0.01%) 20.36% (G:0.20% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.928...+0.932) - [0.2%] Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds
6.	Rollout3	13/10(2) 7/1	eq: +0.928 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 79.41% (G:0.52% B:0.00%) 20.59% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.924...+0.933) - [1.1%] Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
7.	Rollout4	13/10(2) 6/3(2)	eq: +0.922 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 79.54% (G:0.46% B:0.00%) 20.46% (G:0.10% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.915...+0.929) - [0.1%] Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Search interval: Huge 2 4392 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Search interval: Huge 3 612 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Search interval: Huge 4 396 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Search interval: Huge

And here's the GNU 2-ply rollout:

White	110
Blue	103
Position ID: G3fAMQDh3g0GAA Match ID: cIntAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/10(2) 7/4(2)	+0.935
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			840 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/10(2) 8/5 7/4	+0.934 ( -0.001)
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			836 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/10(2) 7/4 6/3	+0.932 ( -0.003)
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			836 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/10(2) 8/5 6/3	+0.931 ( -0.004)
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			831 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	13/10(2) 7/4 5/2	+0.930 ( -0.005)
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			832 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	13/10(2) 8/2	+0.929 ( -0.006)
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			829 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	R	13/10(2) 8/5(2)	+0.929 ( -0.006)
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			830 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• XGR++ Eval and 3-Ply Normal / XGR Rollouts Are PR thieves.
  Michael Depreli -- Saturday, 24 January 2015, at 12:47 p.m.
  • XGR++ Eval and 3-Ply Normal / XGR Rollouts Are PR thieves.
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 24 January 2015, at 10:08 p.m.
  • XGR++ Eval and 3-Ply Normal / XGR Rollouts Are PR thieves.
    HOMINID -- Sunday, 25 January 2015, at 10:19 a.m.