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XGR++ Eval and 3-Ply Normal / XGR Rollouts Are PR thieves.

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Saturday, 24 January 2015, at 12:47 p.m.

There I was happily cruising to a 0 PR game when XGR++ dinged me -0.017 for this!:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 110
7 point match
pip: 103
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A---CDCBb--cB-----cc--bb-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 33

1.XG Roller++13/10(2) 7/4 5/2eq: +0.951
Player:
Opponent:
78.50% (G:1.52% B:0.01%)
21.50% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++13/10(2) 8/5 7/4eq: +0.947 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
78.85% (G:1.26% B:0.01%)
21.15% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++13/10(2) 8/5 6/3eq: +0.942 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
78.50% (G:0.84% B:0.00%)
21.50% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++13/10(2) 8/2eq: +0.941 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
78.12% (G:1.15% B:0.01%)
21.88% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++13/10(2) 6/3 5/2eq: +0.939 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
78.10% (G:1.42% B:0.01%)
21.90% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
6.xgXG Roller++13/10(2) 7/4 6/3eq: +0.937 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
78.56% (G:1.71% B:0.01%)
21.44% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
7.playedXG Roller++13/10(2) 7/4(2)eq: +0.935 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
79.73% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)
20.27% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
8.XG Roller++13/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.931 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
78.21% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
21.79% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
9.XG Roller++13/7(2)eq: +0.926 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
79.17% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
20.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.XG Roller++7/4(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.781 (-0.171)
Player:
Opponent:
73.10% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
26.90% (G:0.51% B:0.03%)

I don't normally run 3-Ply / XGR rollouts but here it is:

1.Rollout113/10(2) 8/5 7/4eq: +0.940
Player:
Opponent:
78.86% (G:1.60% B:0.01%)
21.14% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.001 (+0.938...+0.941) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18.3 seconds
2.Rollout113/10(2) 7/4 6/3eq: +0.932 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
79.05% (G:1.73% B:0.01%)
20.95% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.930...+0.934) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.1 seconds
3.Rollout113/10(2) 7/4 5/2eq: +0.931 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
78.78% (G:1.97% B:0.01%)
21.22% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.930...+0.933) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22.5 seconds
4.Rollout113/10(2) 7/4(2)eq: +0.930 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
78.96% (G:1.30% B:0.00%)
21.04% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.928...+0.931) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.7 seconds
5.Rollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.926 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
78.20% (G:1.51% B:0.01%)
21.80% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.924...+0.928) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39.2 seconds
6.Rollout113/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.922 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
78.83% (G:0.87% B:0.00%)
21.17% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.920...+0.924) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.1 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Hmmmmmmm....

So here's a stronger rollout:

1.Rollout113/10(2) 7/4(2)eq: +0.934
Player:
Opponent:
80.55% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
19.45% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.932...+0.935) - [90.8%]
Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout113/10(2) 7/4 6/3eq: +0.932 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
80.40% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
19.60% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.930...+0.933) - [4.5%]
Duration: 3 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout113/10(2) 8/5 7/4eq: +0.931 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
80.42% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
19.58% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.930...+0.933) - [2.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 44 seconds
4.Rollout113/10(2) 7/4 5/2eq: +0.931 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
80.12% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)
19.88% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.929...+0.933) - [1.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout213/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.930 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
79.64% (G:1.06% B:0.01%)
20.36% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.928...+0.932) - [0.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds
6.Rollout313/10(2) 7/1eq: +0.928 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
79.41% (G:0.52% B:0.00%)
20.59% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.924...+0.933) - [1.1%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
7.Rollout413/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.922 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
79.54% (G:0.46% B:0.00%)
20.46% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.915...+0.929) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Huge

2 4392 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Huge

3 612 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Huge

4 396 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Huge
And here's the GNU 2-ply rollout:

White110

2X2X ' '3X3X ' ' ' ' '2O

1O ' ' '3O4O3O2O2X ' '3X
Blue103
Position ID: G3fAMQDh3g0GAA Match ID: cIntAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/10(2) 7/4(2) +0.935
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
840 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 13/10(2) 8/5 7/4 +0.934 ( -0.001)
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
836 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 13/10(2) 7/4 6/3 +0.932 ( -0.003)
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
836 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 13/10(2) 8/5 6/3 +0.931 ( -0.004)
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
831 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5 R 13/10(2) 7/4 5/2 +0.930 ( -0.005)
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
832 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
6 R 13/10(2) 8/2 +0.929 ( -0.006)
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
829 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
7 R 13/10(2) 8/5(2) +0.929 ( -0.006)
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
830 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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