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XGR++ Eval and 3Ply Normal / XGR Rollouts Are PR thieves.
Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Saturday, 24 January 2015, at 12:47 p.m.
There I was happily cruising to a 0 PR game when XGR++ dinged me 0.017 for this!:
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 1107 point match pip: 103
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=ACDCBbcBccbb:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:7:10 Blue to play 33
1. XG Roller++ 13/10(2) 7/4 5/2 eq: +0.951
Player:
Opponent:78.50% (G:1.52% B:0.01%)
21.50% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)2. XG Roller++ 13/10(2) 8/5 7/4 eq: +0.947 (0.005)
Player:
Opponent:78.85% (G:1.26% B:0.01%)
21.15% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)3. XG Roller++ 13/10(2) 8/5 6/3 eq: +0.942 (0.009)
Player:
Opponent:78.50% (G:0.84% B:0.00%)
21.50% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)4. XG Roller++ 13/10(2) 8/2 eq: +0.941 (0.011)
Player:
Opponent:78.12% (G:1.15% B:0.01%)
21.88% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)5. XG Roller++ 13/10(2) 6/3 5/2 eq: +0.939 (0.012)
Player:
Opponent:78.10% (G:1.42% B:0.01%)
21.90% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)6. XG Roller++ 13/10(2) 7/4 6/3 eq: +0.937 (0.014)
Player:
Opponent:78.56% (G:1.71% B:0.01%)
21.44% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)7. XG Roller++ 13/10(2) 7/4(2) eq: +0.935 (0.017)
Player:
Opponent:79.73% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)
20.27% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)8. XG Roller++ 13/10(2) 8/5(2) eq: +0.931 (0.021)
Player:
Opponent:78.21% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
21.79% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)9. XG Roller++ 13/7(2) eq: +0.926 (0.026)
Player:
Opponent:79.17% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
20.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)10. XG Roller++ 7/4(2) 6/3(2) eq: +0.781 (0.171)
Player:
Opponent:73.10% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
26.90% (G:0.51% B:0.03%)
I don't normally run 3Ply / XGR rollouts but here it is:
1. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 8/5 7/4 eq: +0.940
Player:
Opponent:78.86% (G:1.60% B:0.01%)
21.14% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.938...+0.941)  [100.0%]
Duration: 18.3 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 7/4 6/3 eq: +0.932 (0.008)
Player:
Opponent:79.05% (G:1.73% B:0.01%)
20.95% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.930...+0.934)  [0.0%]
Duration: 35.1 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 7/4 5/2 eq: +0.931 (0.008)
Player:
Opponent:78.78% (G:1.97% B:0.01%)
21.22% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.930...+0.933)  [0.0%]
Duration: 22.5 seconds4. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 7/4(2) eq: +0.930 (0.010)
Player:
Opponent:78.96% (G:1.30% B:0.00%)
21.04% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.928...+0.931)  [0.0%]
Duration: 33.7 seconds5. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 8/5(2) eq: +0.926 (0.014)
Player:
Opponent:78.20% (G:1.51% B:0.01%)
21.80% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.924...+0.928)  [0.0%]
Duration: 39.2 seconds6. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 6/3(2) eq: +0.922 (0.018)
Player:
Opponent:78.83% (G:0.87% B:0.00%)
21.17% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.920...+0.924)  [0.0%]
Duration: 56.1 seconds^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Hmmmmmmm....So here's a stronger rollout:
And here's the GNU 2ply rollout:
1. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 7/4(2) eq: +0.934
Player:
Opponent:80.55% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
19.45% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.932...+0.935)  [90.8%]
Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 7/4 6/3 eq: +0.932 (0.002)
Player:
Opponent:80.40% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
19.60% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.930...+0.933)  [4.5%]
Duration: 3 minutes 47 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 8/5 7/4 eq: +0.931 (0.002)
Player:
Opponent:80.42% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
19.58% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.930...+0.933)  [2.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 44 seconds4. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 7/4 5/2 eq: +0.931 (0.003)
Player:
Opponent:80.12% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)
19.88% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.929...+0.933)  [1.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds5. Rollout^{2} 13/10(2) 8/5(2) eq: +0.930 (0.004)
Player:
Opponent:79.64% (G:1.06% B:0.01%)
20.36% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.928...+0.932)  [0.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds6. Rollout^{3} 13/10(2) 7/1 eq: +0.928 (0.005)
Player:
Opponent:79.41% (G:0.52% B:0.00%)
20.59% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.924...+0.933)  [1.1%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds7. Rollout^{4} 13/10(2) 6/3(2) eq: +0.922 (0.012)
Player:
Opponent:79.54% (G:0.46% B:0.00%)
20.46% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.915...+0.929)  [0.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4ply
Search interval: Huge
^{2} 4392 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4ply
Search interval: Huge
^{3} 612 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4ply
Search interval: Huge
^{4} 396 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4ply
Search interval: Huge
White 110
Blue 103 Position ID: G3fAMQDh3g0GAA Match ID: cIntAAAAAAAA
# Ply Move Equity 1 R 13/10(2) 7/4(2) +0.935 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 840 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasirandom dice Play: world class 2ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1ply moves. Cube: 2ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 13/10(2) 8/5 7/4 +0.934 ( 0.001) Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 836 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasirandom dice Play: world class 2ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1ply moves. Cube: 2ply cubeful prune [world class] 3 R 13/10(2) 7/4 6/3 +0.932 ( 0.003) Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 836 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasirandom dice Play: world class 2ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1ply moves. Cube: 2ply cubeful prune [world class] 4 R 13/10(2) 8/5 6/3 +0.931 ( 0.004) Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 831 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasirandom dice Play: world class 2ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1ply moves. Cube: 2ply cubeful prune [world class] 5 R 13/10(2) 7/4 5/2 +0.930 ( 0.005) Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 832 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasirandom dice Play: world class 2ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1ply moves. Cube: 2ply cubeful prune [world class] 6 R 13/10(2) 8/2 +0.929 ( 0.006) Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 829 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasirandom dice Play: world class 2ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1ply moves. Cube: 2ply cubeful prune [world class] 7 R 13/10(2) 8/5(2) +0.929 ( 0.006) Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 830 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770295795 and quasirandom dice Play: world class 2ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1ply moves. Cube: 2ply cubeful prune [world class]

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