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Free drop at even away

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Saturday, 24 January 2015, at 10:21 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150124A The Dilly Builders (MishyPoo)

The Free Drop is an easy idea: Pass when your opponent is even-away post-crawford. The only finesse I know of is to consider a take if opponent is many even-away and you are only a slight underdog to win the game.

Does that apply here? I was dingged twice by XG (Neil's XG2 Met). After my less than optimal play (yeah I know 24/13 was "better", but I was dropping the automatic double after any play at the time).





White is Player 2

score: 17
pip: 156
25 point match
pip: 167
score: 24

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----E-C---fE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:65:24:17:0:25:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout124/13eq: -0.937
Player:
Opponent:		47.36% (G:9.12% B:0.36%)
52.64% (G:12.66% B:0.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.944...-0.931) - [50.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 13/8eq: -0.996 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		45.85% (G:10.42% B:0.45%)
54.15% (G:13.01% B:0.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.002...-0.990) - [50.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds
1 Truncated at 11 moves using XG Roller.
432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79837796
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 17
pip: 156
25 point match
pip: 156
score: 24

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----E-D---fD---cAe----A-:0:0:-1:00:24:17:0:25:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.31% (G:13.09% B:0.45%) 54.06% (G:12.77% B:0.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.69% (G:10.19% B:0.40%) 45.94% (G:10.18% B:0.42%)
Cubeless Equities +0.235 +0.987
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.872 (-0.115)±0.005 (+0.868..+0.877)
xg Double/Take:+0.987±0.006 (+0.981..+0.994)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.013)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
Truncated at 11 moves using XG Roller.
432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79837796
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Red
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Was I really supposed to take this cube with less than 46% raw winning chances?

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