
BGonline.org Forums
Free drop at even away
Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Saturday, 24 January 2015, at 10:21 p.m.
In Response To: OLM 20150124A The Dilly Builders (MishyPoo)
The Free Drop is an easy idea: Pass when your opponent is evenaway postcrawford. The only finesse I know of is to consider a take if opponent is many evenaway and you are only a slight underdog to win the game.
Does that apply here? I was dingged twice by XG (Neil's XG2 Met). After my less than optimal play (yeah I know 24/13 was "better", but I was dropping the automatic double after any play at the time).
White is Player 2
score: 17
pip: 15625 point match pip: 167
score: 24
Blue is Player 1XGID=aECfEceB:0:0:1:65:24:17:0:25:10 Blue to play 65
1. Rollout^{1} 24/13 eq: 0.937
Player:
Opponent:47.36% (G:9.12% B:0.36%)
52.64% (G:12.66% B:0.27%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.944...0.931)  [50.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 24/18 13/8 eq: 0.996 (0.058)
Player:
Opponent:45.85% (G:10.42% B:0.45%)
54.15% (G:13.01% B:0.38%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (1.002...0.990)  [50.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds^{1} Truncated at 11 moves using XG Roller.
432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79837796
Moves and cube decisions: 3ply RedeXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2
score: 17
pip: 15625 point match pip: 156
score: 24
Blue is Player 1XGID=aEDfDcAeA:0:0:1:00:24:17:0:25:10 White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 54.31% (G:13.09% B:0.45%) 54.06% (G:12.77% B:0.36%) Opponent Winning Chances: 45.69% (G:10.19% B:0.40%) 45.94% (G:10.18% B:0.42%) Cubeless Equities +0.235 +0.987 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.872 (0.115) ±0.005 (+0.868..+0.877) Double/Take: +0.987 ±0.006 (+0.981..+0.994) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.013) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details Truncated at 11 moves using XG Roller.
432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79837796
Moves and cube decisions: 3ply RedDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 4 minutes 35 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Was I really supposed to take this cube with less than 46% raw winning chances?

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.