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61P-31P-32

Posted By: HOMINID
Date: Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 12:45 p.m.

In Response To: 61P-31P-32 (svilo)

My hobbyhorse is roll odds and this is a fine example of the application of them. Of course I made the donkey play. I looked no further in the knowledge that it would by default not be the best play. Would I have got it OTB ? probably not.

My thing at the moment is to beat up XG and force him to talk. When you know the answer there can be a learning curve. In BG terms this is a proactive moment. Theres no point in giving the opposition a free roll with a belt and braces play. If you dont get your runners round the board , you dont win 24/21.Now a home for the 2. If you look for at least 3 candidates you may stumble on 24/22. Count the rolls that hit, oh no its a nightmare. Every double is big and 4 other nasties. Thats 11 rolls or a 31% chance of some big damage. Hold up dont panic theres a 69% chance that they will miss !!

Heres the thing, whatever you play most of those nasty rolls plus extras are available for your opponent on his roll. Now is the time to take advantage of these good odds .I guess experience or luck and even a roll odds counter may have got it right and of course XG lol.

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