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OLM 20150126A The Dilly Builders -- CONSULTATION

Posted By: MandM1951
Date: Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 4:11 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150126A The Dilly Builders -- CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)

When I originally looked at this position, I thought it was a reluctant Take. Reluctant because we hated to put 4(+) points on the line when ahead -4 -8. But a Take nonetheless because, all things considered (or at least the things I considered) we would lose more equity if we passed rather than took. I didn't compute our take point or do the type of analysis that Martin did here. (OTB, I screw up the arithmetic and I don't get the estimates of wins/losses and gammons close enough to be useful.) Based on his analysis, Martin concludes that we are only 1% away from a Take, and, Neil, disagreeing with Martin's gammon estimates, thinks it a close Take. So, I'm inclined to stick with my initial vote of Take. (An aside: Following a close decision that goes to a consultation, and is important in terms of equity, like this one, it would be nice to see a rollout soon after the captain's decision is posted, when the decision is still fresh in our minds. However, I hesitate to ask because I fully appreciate that Jason is doing more than enough work for this OLM.)

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