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Today's Exercise In Containment Play.

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 29 January 2015, at 4:48 p.m.

In Response To: Today's Exercise In Containment Play. (Michael Depreli)

9/8 has to be the worst, and it looks so awful I'd pass after that. But double/take after the rest, I think, which are:

8/7 doesn't appeal. If Opp rolls a 7, I want to be attacking with 28/36 hitters, not be on the bar.

I don't see that 20/19 accomplishes anything.

13/12 does more, but not so much, it seems. It picks up 8 additional shots after a 65 return, and 5 additional shots after a 7. But it gives only 4 more ways to make the bar point (picks up 65 52 51 but loses 33 66), and probably many of all barpoint-making numbers will be used instead to attack in the home board. If the roll were 52 I'd play 13/11. But the two remaining plays look better:

6/5. Big improvement if not hit, which is most of the time (21/36). Awful on 55. Not good on 56 and 52. Not so good on the other 5's, of course, especially if followed by a fan.

21/20. Big swing on 55.

Which play wins most often? Probably 6/5, but 21/20 should get gammoned less often. I'd guess 6/5 is a little better. The big stack screams for unstacking. If Opp wouldn't double after 21/20, then 6/5 is the play for that reason, too.

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