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OLM 20150129A The Dilly Builders

Posted By: Martin
Date: Thursday, 29 January 2015, at 7:24 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150129A The Dilly Builders (Jason Lee)

18/14 6/5

Safetying the blot on the 9 point gives them 20 hits but nearly no gammons. 18/14 gives them 16 hits, but also some gammons. The question is: How many? Safetying the blot gives them 8 hit-and-covers, while 18/14 gives them only 2, but also 2 double hits (52 is duplicated). Also, in the cases where we are not hit, our position will be a lot better after 18/14. We lose few gammons if they hit our last checker, only the 12 rolls that hit our 9 point checker are a real gammon threat. If the chance of them closing us out afterwards is 50%, then we lose about 7% gammons in total. Do we win 7% more games with 18/14? Yes we do!

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