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VRR - Challenge

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Friday, 30 January 2015, at 8:54 p.m.

In Response To: VRR - Challenge (Rick Janowski)

If VRR was used what would the variance reduce to? 67 perhaps?

Long ago, I tracked my VR rating on FIBS for a while using a simple spreadsheet, and the difference in quality compared to the conventional rating baffled me. So, I think the reduction will be better than that. If one VR match is worth 70 non-VR-matches, as Bob wrote, then a reasonable estimate is that the deviation is reduced to sqrt(1/70) of what it is without VR, just because that's by how much the deviation of the result of a single match is reduced. That's possibly too optimistic for two reasons I can think of: First, Bob's estimate is for bot-vs-bot play, and maybe human-vs-human contains more hard-to-reduce variability. Second, the estimate doesn't address that the restoring force to the true rating is stronger simply because the distance from equilibrium is typically larger. Still, I feel safe to bet that the deviation is reduced to 20% or less by using VR.

This assumes that the same formula for updating ratings is used for the VR and the non-VR case. That's not necessarily the best thing to do. For example, instead of using the FIBS match value of 4*sqrt(match length), one could use 30*sqrt(match length) to have the same variance per match but a hugely stronger restoring force.

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