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OLM 20150126A The Dilly Builders -- CONSULTATION

Posted By: Martin
Date: Sunday, 1 February 2015, at 5:49 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150126A The Dilly Builders -- CONSULTATION (Martin)

Looking at my estimates with XGR++: First lesson: It is better to hit both blots with 62 and 21 rather than hit one and cover the 3 point blot. Only with 22 and 11 it is better to cover.

Of the 16 rolls that either hit and cover or hit two, we win 4.1 and we lose gammon in 2.2.

Of the 12 rolls that hit but fail to cover the 3pt blot, we win 5.1 and we lose gammon in 1.

Of the 8 rolls that don't hit, we win 5.7 and we lose gammon in 0.1.

Bottom line: As Neil pointed out, my gammon guesses were too high.

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