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What's Your Game Plan? Position 51 variants

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 2 February 2015, at 10:01 p.m.

In my comments to One Weird Trick, I said that I was reminded of a position in What's Your Game Plan? The position in question is #51. It's not quite as similar as my hazy memory suggested, because the Game Plan position is a one-way holding game, but it is still similar in the sense that Blue has the option of running off the golden anchor with a big racing lead and a stronger board. The variants below illustrate that the decision is very sensitive to board strength.


Variant 1





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122
Unlimited Game
pip: 99
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBA-C-BA--bb-b-bbcB--b--:0:0:1:45:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 45

1.Rollout120/11eq: +0.006
Player:
Opponent:
50.44% (G:14.32% B:0.14%)
49.56% (G:4.77% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.006...+0.018) - [99.9%]
Duration: 10 minutes 48 seconds
2.Rollout19/4 8/4eq: -0.022 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
51.34% (G:7.52% B:0.06%)
48.66% (G:4.06% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.034...-0.010) - [0.1%]
Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release


Variant 2





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
pip: 99
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBA-C-BA--bb-b-bbcB-b---:0:0:1:45:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 45

1.Rollout19/4 8/4eq: -0.159
Player:
Opponent:
47.41% (G:6.87% B:0.04%)
52.59% (G:4.80% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.170...-0.148) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout120/11eq: -0.285 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:
40.81% (G:17.38% B:0.30%)
59.19% (G:6.11% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.297...-0.273) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 24 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release


Variant 3

A little extra caution is advisable in interpreting these results because XG 3-ply, 4-ply, and XGR+ don't agree very closely on the equities, suggesting some lack of understanding of the position on XG's part.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
pip: 97
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBB-B-BA--bb-b-bbcB-b---:0:0:1:45:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 45

1.Rollout120/11eq: -0.145
Player:
Opponent:
46.48% (G:13.13% B:0.10%)
53.52% (G:3.49% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.157...-0.133) - [79.1%]
Duration: 12 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout19/5 8/3eq: -0.152 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
47.34% (G:7.97% B:0.05%)
52.66% (G:4.95% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.162...-0.141) - [20.9%]
Duration: 10 minutes 01 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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