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What's Your Game Plan? Position 51 variants

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 2 February 2015, at 10:01 p.m.

In my comments to One Weird Trick, I said that I was reminded of a position in What's Your Game Plan? The position in question is #51. It's not quite as similar as my hazy memory suggested, because the Game Plan position is a one-way holding game, but it is still similar in the sense that Blue has the option of running off the golden anchor with a big racing lead and a stronger board. The variants below illustrate that the decision is very sensitive to board strength.

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Variant 1

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 122 Unlimited Game pip: 99 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBA-C-BA--bb-b-bbcB--b--:0:0:1:45:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 45

1.	Rollout1	20/11	eq: +0.006
	Player: Opponent: 50.44% (G:14.32% B:0.14%) 49.56% (G:4.77% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.006...+0.018) - [99.9%] Duration: 10 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/4 8/4	eq: -0.022 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 51.34% (G:7.52% B:0.06%) 48.66% (G:4.06% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.034...-0.010) - [0.1%] Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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Variant 2

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 124 Unlimited Game pip: 99 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBA-C-BA--bb-b-bbcB-b---:0:0:1:45:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 45

1.	Rollout1	9/4 8/4	eq: -0.159
	Player: Opponent: 47.41% (G:6.87% B:0.04%) 52.59% (G:4.80% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.170...-0.148) - [100.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 43 seconds
2.	Rollout1	20/11	eq: -0.285 (-0.126)
	Player: Opponent: 40.81% (G:17.38% B:0.30%) 59.19% (G:6.11% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.297...-0.273) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 24 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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Variant 3

A little extra caution is advisable in interpreting these results because XG 3-ply, 4-ply, and XGR+ don't agree very closely on the equities, suggesting some lack of understanding of the position on XG's part.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 124 Unlimited Game pip: 97 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBB-B-BA--bb-b-bbcB-b---:0:0:1:45:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 45

1.	Rollout1	20/11	eq: -0.145
	Player: Opponent: 46.48% (G:13.13% B:0.10%) 53.52% (G:3.49% B:0.12%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.157...-0.133) - [79.1%] Duration: 12 minutes 05 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/5 8/3	eq: -0.152 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 47.34% (G:7.97% B:0.05%) 52.66% (G:4.95% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.162...-0.141) - [20.9%] Duration: 10 minutes 01 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• What's Your Game Plan? Position 51 variants
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 February 2015, at 10:01 p.m.
  • What's Your Game Plan? Position 51 variants
    HOMINID -- Tuesday, 3 February 2015, at 4:19 p.m.
    • What's Your Game Plan? Position 51 variants
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 3 February 2015, at 6:13 p.m.