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Nactation Tutorial #17 -- Rollouts

Posted By: Igor
Date: Thursday, 5 February 2015, at 4:50 p.m.

In Response To: Nactation Tutorial #17 (Igor)

The first two rolls started to steer the game towards mutual priming. So, it's best to improve on both sides of the board by splitting the rear checkers.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-CAA-eC---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout124/22 10/9eq: -0.093
Player:
Opponent:
48.06% (G:12.99% B:0.64%)
51.94% (G:15.60% B:0.65%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.098...-0.089) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout19/7 8/7eq: -0.116 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
47.35% (G:14.05% B:0.69%)
52.65% (G:16.86% B:0.97%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.121...-0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 37 minutes
3.Rollout213/11 10/9eq: -0.172 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
46.10% (G:13.84% B:0.73%)
53.90% (G:17.59% B:1.05%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.185...-0.159) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
4.Rollout213/10eq: -0.185 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
45.59% (G:14.06% B:0.74%)
54.41% (G:17.65% B:1.15%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.197...-0.174) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
5.Rollout210/9 6/4eq: -0.187 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
46.07% (G:12.62% B:0.67%)
53.93% (G:17.62% B:1.11%)
Conf.: 0.012 (-0.198...-0.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10842456
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10842456
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Splitting is even more urgent if white has a stronger priming structure arising after 43D-31P-21:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-CAA-eC---b-db---B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.XG Roller++24/22 10/9eq: -0.144
Player:
Opponent:
46.65% (G:12.55% B:0.64%)
53.35% (G:15.86% B:0.65%)
2.XG Roller++9/7 8/7eq: -0.199 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
45.22% (G:12.93% B:0.58%)
54.78% (G:16.83% B:0.99%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

However, in 43D-64P-21 (the second roll is misplayed) white has an attacking structure, so splitting is not the best idea. (Rollout due to David Rockwell.)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-CAA-eC---b-d---bB-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout19/7 8/7eq: +0.094
Player:
Opponent:
52.71% (G:16.03% B:0.76%)
47.29% (G:15.39% B:0.90%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.088...+0.099) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout124/22 10/9eq: +0.074 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
52.31% (G:14.91% B:0.71%)
47.69% (G:14.89% B:0.50%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.068...+0.081) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84824561
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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