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DQ: Ahead in race behind a prime

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 6 February 2015, at 9:30 p.m.

In Response To: DQ: Ahead in race behind a prime (Dan Wittkopp)

You may wish to revise those cubeless estimates. Blue wins this clearly more than 75% of the time, making it a huge money pass when you consider G's won as well. 3 pt games are often overrated. A crushed 3 pt game behind a 5 prime sucks but isn't hopeless.

Your match equity for ND here has to include added equity from being able to cube later as this isn't a one roll decision. Blue will often be able to gain by cubing in a roll or two. As Blue advances towards home he often gains in the race, but the chances to close out two blots gets reduced.

I don't cube now since I think White has a clear take and since a reasonable # of Blue's wins are gammons.

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