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RO & a variation

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 11:05 p.m.

In Response To: 41 for White (John O'Hagan)

OTB, the return hits scared me from the loose hit so I played the non-hitting 11/6. I figured that too many of the return hits would be game-winners. What I missed is that I'm not doing too well if Black escapes his straggler so the loss from being hit isn't that great - I go from being a clear underdog to an even bigger one. Hitting is therefore clear. Then play big with the ace to get the maximum number of covers.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 139 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-B-Ba-B-B--CdB--bb-cc-B---:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.	Rollout1	11/10 8/4*	eq: -0.451
	Player: Opponent: 36.78% (G:14.45% B:0.17%) 63.22% (G:16.43% B:0.84%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.462...-0.440) - [99.7%] Duration: 21 minutes 57 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/21 8/4*	eq: -0.471 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 36.39% (G:13.68% B:0.21%) 63.61% (G:19.07% B:1.29%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.481...-0.462) - [0.3%] Duration: 22 minutes 55 seconds
3.	Rollout2	8/7 8/4*	eq: -0.495 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 35.62% (G:13.22% B:0.18%) 64.38% (G:14.59% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.508...-0.482) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 06 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/4* 4/3	eq: -0.530 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 34.80% (G:11.48% B:0.15%) 65.20% (G:13.95% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.544...-0.517) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 18 seconds
5.	Rollout2	11/6	eq: -0.531 (-0.080)
	Player: Opponent: 34.47% (G:10.45% B:0.13%) 65.53% (G:11.35% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.545...-0.517) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 49 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

11/6 is clear if you change the position by giving me the 18-point. Now I'm 8 pips better in the race, can more easily convert to a race, and am much better off if Black escapes. No need for a RO of this position.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 131 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-B-Ba-B-B--CdB--bbBcc-----:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.	4-ply	11/6	eq: +0.164
	Player: Opponent: 53.29% (G:13.39% B:0.08%) 46.71% (G:8.08% B:0.31%)
2.	4-ply	8/4* 4/3	eq: +0.066 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 50.49% (G:14.82% B:0.10%) 49.51% (G:10.13% B:0.43%)
3.	4-ply	11/10 8/4*	eq: +0.040 (-0.124)
	Player: Opponent: 48.91% (G:18.41% B:0.14%) 51.09% (G:13.55% B:0.67%)
4.	4-ply	8/7 8/4*	eq: +0.019 (-0.146)
	Player: Opponent: 49.00% (G:16.35% B:0.12%) 51.00% (G:11.25% B:0.45%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

Messages In This Thread

• 41 for White
  John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 7 February 2015, at 3:31 p.m.
  • 41 for White
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 12:49 a.m.
    • 41 for White
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 2:57 a.m.
    • 41 for White
      Igor -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 3:22 a.m.
    • 41 for White
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 6:19 p.m.
  • RO & a variation
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 11:05 p.m.
    • Another variation
      vidvis -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 2:57 a.m.
    • A variation with same pip count difference as OP
      neilkaz -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 9:17 p.m.
    • RO & a variation
      Kevin Finch -- Tuesday, 10 February 2015, at 8:16 p.m.