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OTB and RO and analysis

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 9 February 2015, at 5:56 a.m.

In Response To: Which way to blot? (neilkaz)

Most of you got this correct. Unfortunately I did not OTB.

I played 3/0 concerned about considerable extra losses when hit and noting that Ray has the cube.

After not hitting, I still am a fav to G when not hit. Ray is supposed to waste even 3 pips to cross over with a roll like 54!. if I hit a cost him a crossover and now when he misses he must roll a double.

After 3/0 per XGR++ if he rolls 61 to hit and CO. He wins 31.68% with an emg of -.264.

If I play 3/2x 3/1 and he hits with 62 to CO. He wins 40.64% with an emg of -.055. I am barely a fav since he owns the cube and can use it quite efficiently when a dance a few times while he's bearing off.

OTB I was aware of about 9% cpw difference with 10 off rather than 9 and didn't expect enough extra G's to compensate cubeful. Hitting does win 0.4% BG's but still I didn't expect it to be best. I was sure pick and pass for 13 shots wasn't optimum.

I should've tried to better guesstimate G's gained noting that my extra losses only matter the 30% of the time I get hit.

White is Ray Fogerlund

score: 1
pip: 84
9 point match
pip: 10
score: 0

Blue is Neil Kazaross
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout13/1 3/2* eq: +1.3075
87.73% (G:54.00% B:0.40%)
12.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.0014 (+1.3062...+1.3089) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14.9 seconds
2.Rollout13/2* 2/Offeq: +1.2854 (-0.0222)
88.68% (G:49.67% B:0.23%)
11.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.0013 (+1.2841...+1.2867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.9 seconds
3.Rollout13/Offeq: +1.2793 (-0.0282)
90.43% (G:45.57% B:0.00%)
9.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.0011 (+1.2782...+1.2805) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12.5 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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