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OTB and RO and analysis

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 9 February 2015, at 5:56 a.m.

In Response To: Which way to blot? (neilkaz)

Most of you got this correct. Unfortunately I did not OTB.

I played 3/0 concerned about considerable extra losses when hit and noting that Ray has the cube.

After not hitting, I still am a fav to G when not hit. Ray is supposed to waste even 3 pips to cross over with a roll like 54!. if I hit a cost him a crossover and now when he misses he must roll a double.

After 3/0 per XGR++ if he rolls 61 to hit and CO. He wins 31.68% with an emg of -.264.

If I play 3/2x 3/1 and he hits with 62 to CO. He wins 40.64% with an emg of -.055. I am barely a fav since he owns the cube and can use it quite efficiently when a dance a few times while he's bearing off.

OTB I was aware of about 9% cpw difference with 10 off rather than 9 and didn't expect enough extra G's to compensate cubeful. Hitting does win 0.4% BG's but still I didn't expect it to be best. I was sure pick and pass for 13 shots wasn't optimum.

I should've tried to better guesstimate G's gained noting that my extra losses only matter the 30% of the time I get hit.

		White is Ray Fogerlund score: 1 pip: 84 9 point match pip: 10 score: 0 Blue is Neil Kazaross
XGID=-DaB--------------bcbbbba-:1:-1:1:21:0:1:0:9:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	3/1 3/2*	eq: +1.3075
	Player: Opponent: 87.73% (G:54.00% B:0.40%) 12.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0014 (+1.3062...+1.3089) - [100.0%] Duration: 14.9 seconds
2.	Rollout1	3/2* 2/Off	eq: +1.2854 (-0.0222)
	Player: Opponent: 88.68% (G:49.67% B:0.23%) 11.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0013 (+1.2841...+1.2867) - [0.0%] Duration: 15.9 seconds
3.	Rollout1	3/Off	eq: +1.2793 (-0.0282)
	Player: Opponent: 90.43% (G:45.57% B:0.00%) 9.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0011 (+1.2782...+1.2805) - [0.0%] Duration: 12.5 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Which way to blot?
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 7 February 2015, at 5:03 p.m.
  • Which way to blot?
    Golden -- Saturday, 7 February 2015, at 6:31 p.m.
    • Which way to blot?
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Saturday, 7 February 2015, at 10:32 p.m.
    • Which way to blot?
      Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 12:20 a.m.
    • Which way to blot?
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 12:34 a.m.
  • Which way to blot?
    Martin -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 10:59 a.m.
  • Which way to blot?
    Kevin Finch -- Sunday, 8 February 2015, at 7:30 p.m.
  • Which way to blot?
    Fatboy -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 5:36 a.m.
  • OTB and RO and analysis
    neilkaz -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 5:56 a.m.
    • OTB and RO and analysis
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 11:31 p.m.
      • OTB and RO and analysis
        neilkaz -- Monday, 9 February 2015, at 11:47 p.m.