First thing you should do is read, or reread as the case may be, Woolsey's Doubling Rule
I believe in the other thread almost everything I'm going to mention was stated but I'd like to summarize more concisely with an example (maybe 2?) as to when and why Woolsey's rule should be employed.
The biggest drawback I thought of when first reading about Kit's rule is that you're limited by your own playing strength. Just because I'm not sure whether it's a take or a pass doesn't mean Neil doesn't know for 100% certainty the D/ND T/P decision. I do think the rule is useful however for decent players and make use of it myself. I would only caution weaker players about using it because they could be chunking off large sums of equity sending over way early cubes (and then having to play out that position being the weaker player!) I think it's much more constructive to take the extra time to get under the T/P decision than to do as Kit says "Readers who have watched me play may notice that I often double a complicated position with apparently no thought. That's fine if you're Kit and you have enough bg experience under your belt to understand positions at a glance, but I wouldn't recommend it for Average Joe BG Player.
Kit also lists 'the four possible cube strategies' for any position:
- Not good enough to double, take
- Double, Take
- Double, Pass
- Too good to double, pass
He left off "too good to double, take". I don't know if he did this on purpose or not, just noting.
Kit himself realizes his law isn't 100% fullproof in stating "It is true that there are certain exceptions in match play when you are ahead in the match and the turn of the cube will put you out or nearly out, but in all other situations the law applies."
In an example borrowed from Douglas Zare's article on Woolsey's Rule in Match Play we have the following position:
| 162 |                        |
| 66 |
Is it a take? Is it a pass? The problem is no matter what decision your opponent makes, right or wrong, you've made a blunder. You'd be much better off holding the cube whether or not your opponent takes or passes in this position thus making an exception to Woolsey's rule.
We should resign ourselves to normal money like match scores when using the Woolsey rule for the most part. It works exceptionally well for $$$, no doubt about it. I personally would rather double a shade early, as I think Kit does, instead of waiting. As with yesterday's OLM cube, I expected almost no one to drop, and nobody did drop. My cube was shown to be a small error but in playing out the position I figure to have less checker play decisions than you do and I expect you to make errors to chunk me back any equity I may have lost if it was a ND and then some when things go sour. We may get to see that since things have already went sour and you have a 22 to play.
Kit also states, and I'm not sure if he's the first to say it or not, though it has been etched in my brain for as long as I can remember, With correct cube play, I believe that at least 2/3's of initial doubles should be taken.
For the record this is pretty accurate. I have many stats I've ripped from my GNU v. SW series and the fact that 2/3rds of the initial doubles should be taken holds water. So next time you're considering passing that initial double, make sure you know what you're doing!
Stick