Rollout

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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 18 October 2006, at 4:51 a.m.

In Response To: NIB #66 -- little oddities (Stick)

Your only concern here should be safely bringing in your 8 & 9 pts. so now is the time to break one of them and keep flexible. White has one on the bar and while you hope he stays there for 3 more turns he most likely won't, so you take a very small risk now to make your position easier to bring home. As Kit said [paraphrasing] 'bad numbers come out of nowhere in positions like these'. You'll be drivin' along drivin' along drivin' along then BAM! out of nowhere, a number you hadn't even though of, such as a double 7 and it crashes your position completely. To avoid it pick up those outfield points asap!
Money Game
155
83

Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity

1 R 9/7 9/8 0.252

0.4% 28.7% 59.4% 40.6% 7.3% 0.3%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.402 ą0.017. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 27502 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

2 R 9/6 0.225 (-0.027)

0.8% 29.5% 57.6% 42.4% 7.1% 0.2%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.382 ą0.018. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 23143 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

3 R 13/12 8/6 0.212 (-0.040)

0.5% 26.2% 58.2% 41.8% 6.5% 0.3%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.362 ą0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 13396 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.

4 R 13/10 0.199 (-0.053)

0.5% 26.8% 57.4% 42.6% 6.4% 0.2%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.356 ą0.027. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 12291 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.

5 R 8/6 8/7 0.141 (-0.111)

0.6% 26.7% 56.4% 43.6% 8.9% 0.2%

95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.311 ą0.025. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 13261 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.

Money Game
155
83
Board image courtesy of *GO-Figure*

Messages In This Thread

NIB #66 -- little oddities
Stick -- Saturday, 14 October 2006, at 10:22 p.m.
- Re: NIB #66 -- little oddities
  garyo -- Sunday, 15 October 2006, at 6:26 a.m.
- Rollout
  Stick -- Wednesday, 18 October 2006, at 4:51 a.m.

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#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	9/7 9/8	0.252
			0.4% 28.7% 59.4% 40.6% 7.3% 0.3%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.402 ą0.017. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 27502 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
	2	R	9/6	0.225 (-0.027)
			0.8% 29.5% 57.6% 42.4% 7.1% 0.2%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.382 ą0.018. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 23143 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
	3	R	13/12 8/6	0.212 (-0.040)
			0.5% 26.2% 58.2% 41.8% 6.5% 0.3%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.362 ą0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 13396 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
	4	R	13/10	0.199 (-0.053)
			0.5% 26.8% 57.4% 42.6% 6.4% 0.2%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.356 ą0.027. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 12291 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
	5	R	8/6 8/7	0.141 (-0.111)
			0.6% 26.7% 56.4% 43.6% 8.9% 0.2%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.311 ą0.025. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 13261 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.