It is surprising how often the 'come out with both men in the face of a double shot' play is correct. Here is a position which I recently came across and that is similar, with the same lesson. Similarities include:
1) The side on roll would have to leave a shot anyway
2) The side not on roll has a four point board.
3) The race is fairly even.
4) Both sides have high anchors. (Mutual holding game.)
5) If you come out, you need to come out with both men. Running with one man is the worst of all worlds, given the fact that the oppt will hit inside his board if he cannot hit anywhere else.
The way that I interpreted the correct play is that by not coming out you are abandoning the outfield. This might be justified if you could play totally safe, but here you cannot. And in both cases if you are hit you can at least look forward to coming back in on a 4 - not 5 - point board. Against a 5 pt board coming out is a double blunder (at least in my position).
                         |
| ||||
| XGID=-B-CbBB-C---bA-----cBdbb--:0:0:-1:65:0:0:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 65 | |||||
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 21/16 21/15 | eq: -0.487 | |||
| ||||||
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 13/2 | eq: -0.526 (-0.039) | |||
| ||||||
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 21/10 | eq: -0.601 (-0.113) | |||
| ||||||
| 4. | 3-ply | 13/8 13/7 | eq: -0.687 (-0.200) | |||
| ||||||
| 5. | 2-ply | 21/15 6/1 | eq: -0.801 (-0.314) | |||
| ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2