Strong three-point board + split rear checkers against nothing much is often a pass. These are all in unlimited games. Five out of six are passes, and passing the other is an error, according to XGR++, of only 0.012
I think what makes taking the cube in Chuck’s variant so much easier than below is the small number of attacking and pointing rolls when the 10pt is made and the split to the 23pt is blocked by the opponent’s 8pt.
Mike
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| XGID=-aa-BBB-B-B-cC-a-d-e--A-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 70.52% (G:25.25% B:1.38%) | 70.39% (G:26.37% B:1.52%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.48% (G:6.05% B:0.25%) | 29.61% (G:6.24% B:0.26%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.614 | +1.243 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.892 (-0.108) | |
| Double/Take: | +1.030 (+0.030) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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| XGID=-aaB-BB-B-B-cC-a-d-e-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 70.12% (G:26.25% B:1.58%) | 70.27% (G:26.69% B:1.62%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.88% (G:5.62% B:0.20%) | 29.73% (G:5.67% B:0.22%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.623 | +1.259 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.896 (-0.104) | |
| Double/Take: | +1.047 (+0.047) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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| XGID=-aa-BBB-C-A-cC-a-d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.56% (G:26.17% B:1.40%) | 69.43% (G:27.55% B:1.48%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.44% (G:7.07% B:0.32%) | 30.57% (G:7.15% B:0.34%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.593 | +1.208 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.853 (-0.135) | |
| Double/Take: | +0.988 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.012) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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| ||||
| XGID=-aa-BBB-C-A-cC-a-d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71.01% (G:26.79% B:1.49%) | 71.21% (G:27.02% B:1.50%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28.99% (G:6.12% B:0.27%) | 28.79% (G:6.14% B:0.27%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.639 | +1.290 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.911 (-0.089) | |
| Double/Take: | +1.085 (+0.085) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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| ||||
| XGID=-aa-BBC-B-A-cC-a-d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.63% (G:29.13% B:1.62%) | 68.61% (G:30.67% B:1.69%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.37% (G:7.13% B:0.34%) | 31.39% (G:7.14% B:0.34%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.605 | +1.242 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.854 (-0.146) | |
| Double/Take: | +1.018 (+0.018) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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| ||||
| XGID=-aaB-BC-B-A-cC-a-d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.74% (G:29.33% B:1.58%) | 68.81% (G:29.68% B:1.62%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.26% (G:6.76% B:0.31%) | 31.19% (G:6.71% B:0.30%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.613 | +1.238 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.854 (-0.146) | |
| Double/Take: | +1.014 (+0.014) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10