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New XG rollout statistics: Variance Reduction

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 17 February 2015, at 10:02 p.m.

In Response To: New XG rollout statistics: Use case #1 (Timothy Chow)

I started a test of convergence of rollouts without variance reduction. I only got to 417K before putting it aside. I may continue at a later date. Either it takes far more than 417K trials to converge, or variance reduction is not as precise as we would like to think. When using the rollout statistics, this should be kept in mind.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 167 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: +0.0163
 Player:Opponent: 49.80% (G:16.02% B:0.89%)50.20% (G:14.40% B:0.66%) Conf.: ±0.0090 (+0.0074...+0.0253) - [87.3%]Duration: 1 day 13 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout224/18 13/9eq: +0.0088 (-0.0076)
 Player:Opponent: 50.31% (G:13.82% B:0.67%)49.69% (G:13.94% B:0.60%) Conf.: ±0.0088 (+0.0000...+0.0176) - [11.6%]Duration: 2 days 00 hour 56 minutes
3.Rollout324/14eq: +0.0031 (-0.0132)
 Player:Opponent: 50.45% (G:12.30% B:0.61%)49.55% (G:13.43% B:0.50%) Conf.: ±0.0086 (-0.0055...+0.0118) - [1.2%]Duration: 1 day 22 hours 09 minutes
1 417415 Games rolled.
Dice Seed: 7552312
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

2 417413 Games rolled.
Dice Seed: 7552312
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

3 417414 Games rolled.
Dice Seed: 7552312
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 White is Black score: 0 pip: 167 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 167 score: 0 Blue is White
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: +0.0110
 Player:Opponent: 49.74% (G:15.93% B:0.90%)50.26% (G:14.42% B:0.67%) Conf.: ±0.0023 (+0.0088...+0.0133) - [74.3%]Duration: 16 hours 40 minutes
2.Rollout124/14eq: +0.0094 (-0.0016)
 Player:Opponent: 50.56% (G:12.32% B:0.59%)49.44% (G:13.39% B:0.49%) Conf.: ±0.0022 (+0.0072...+0.0117) - [13.2%]Duration: 20 hours 13 minutes
3.Rollout124/18 13/9eq: +0.0094 (-0.0017)
 Player:Opponent: 50.35% (G:13.82% B:0.66%)49.65% (G:13.92% B:0.61%) Conf.: ±0.0023 (+0.0071...+0.0116) - [12.5%]Duration: 21 hours 19 minutes
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7552312
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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