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OLM 20150218A The Dilly Builders

Posted By: scotty
Date: Thursday, 19 February 2015, at 4:07 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150218A The Dilly Builders (Jason Lee)

20/15 7/4

tough decision here. I suspect that the wrong move is a blunder, probably greater than .100, possibly .200 Do we play our spare deeper or play in a builder from the bar point? I don't know the numbers here, which greatly adds to my difficulty in assessing this situation. Sooner or later, I need to start getting into the nuts and bolts of different types of positions to understand the real probabilities. I'll take a stab at it and hope to learn something here.

One thing, for sure: The bots would hit and slot the one point using a spare, if possible.

If we are able to close out, how many gammons do we get? I'll estimate 50 gammons and 40 single games. If white makes our 1pt, i'll guess 25 gammons and 55 single games. White holds the cube, so this game will be played to conclusion, unless white turns the game around and recubes us. My guestimates on match equity suggest to me that we will have about 57% if we win a single game, and i would guess about 63% if we win a gammon.

White will fan again 25/36 times. If we play 7/4 we will hit on the one point on 34/36 rolls next exchange. I like those chances.

ps: I'll check my estimates of match equity after this message is posted, and check the gammons and wins when this game has concluded. Based on past experience, I'm usually off by a mile.

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