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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 20 February 2015, at 4:08 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

This is a math problem disguised as a BG position. That being said, lots of big mistakes are often made in these positions OTB.

This shouldn't be too difficult AtS. If we cube we win the match 23 times and on our 13 misses we pass the recube and are tied 5-5 so we win 6.5 more matches.

Thus cubing wins 29.5/36 matches or about 82%.

If we don't cube, lets see how often Black wins this game. Black wins 13x25/1296 of the time. 325/1296 is very close to 25% so we'll use that. Leading 4a8a is about 64% so White is winning 16% here.

75% of the time White wins and leads 2a8a which is 87.5%. This adds 65.625% more wins for a total of 81.625% match wins by not cubing.

As my rounding has been quite small here, it seems that is is slightly correct to cube here, assuming equally skilled players.

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