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Rollout: More screaming...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 24 February 2015, at 1:14 a.m.

In Response To: More screaming... (Timothy Chow)

Blue is in dire straits no matter what. Typically, the best way to fight a prime is to counter-prime, and this roll gives a plausible way to do that, with bar/22 8/5(2) 6/3*. (Make the 5pt!) XG, however, prefers what to me is a surprising game-plan, namely a total abandonment of the priming plan and an all-out commitment to blitzing: bar/22 7/4*/1 6/3*. White is almost certainly going to be able to hold her five-prime for a long time after this play, so Blue is evidently hoping to leap a bunch of checkers over White's five-prime while White is busy dancing. White's outfield blots make this plan a little more plausible but it still seems dubiously committal to me. I think part of the point is that even if Blue tries 8/5(2), his chances of out-priming White are very slim and he is probably going to be forced to crunch anyway, so he might as well accept that fate now and make the most of his attacking chances.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
Unlimited Game
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-aa-DBDa-aa----bbbbbB-AA:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout1Bar/22 7/4* 6/3* 4/1eq: -0.883
Player:
Opponent:		17.84% (G:6.58% B:0.55%)
82.16% (G:35.18% B:1.84%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.891...-0.875) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 7/4*(2) 6/3* eq: -0.912 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		18.38% (G:4.89% B:0.40%)
81.62% (G:37.41% B:2.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.919...-0.904) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/22 8/5(2) 6/3* eq: -0.922 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		17.95% (G:3.93% B:0.25%)
82.05% (G:36.93% B:2.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.930...-0.914) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 01 second
4.Rollout2Bar/22 7/4* 6/3*(2) eq: -0.963 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		17.57% (G:4.49% B:0.35%)
82.43% (G:40.36% B:2.75%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.974...-0.953) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 17 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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