[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

4 pip lead? - minimum adjustment?

Posted By: Peter G.
Date: Friday, 19 January 2007, at 12:30 p.m.

In Response To: Re: Re: 4 pip lead? Bottage (Ian Shaw)

White wastes only 8.1 pips and Blue 8.8

The EPC of the adjusted position is of course correctly delivered from the database.

BUT, White's back checker in the original position will force White to waste more on several rolls in order not to leave a shot. Look e.g. at 52 now.

I tested this with a rollout as follows. I wanted a look at GNU's rollout statistics. This is only active for cube rollouts. I also wanted the games played to conclusion, so the wastage actually happens. Setting up 2away both uncubed is the best I could come up with. Then I looked at the pips wasted in case Blue cubed. The report is 6900 pips were wasted by Blue in 650 games. This amounts to an average wastage for of ~9.08 pips/game.

Even this number is an underestimate because only 70% of the games were won by Blue, so 30% of the time Blue wasn't allowed to accumulate his full wastage in the games rolled out. Even if I assume a very low wastage of 4 pips in these games, Blue would waste 9.08 + 0.3*4 = 10.28 pips to fully bear off. With the standard 7 pips wastage the result would be 9.08 + 0.3*7 = 11.18.

In conclusion, I believe Blue wastes about 3 pips more than White in this position.

Peter

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.