One reply? You folks need to step it up a notch. When Keene is the shining star of a thread you know something has gone terribly, horribly, and irrevocably wrong.
This came up OtB when I was playing v. XG. I had the top position come up and before doubling I thought it was a clear pass due to the made ace point. After being slightly surprised by XG's analysis saying I was technically too good I thought to myself "This could be a take if my opp. had the made two point instead of ace point." I thought it was quite the difference made by shifting a deep point and worthy of sharing to show just how important it is to have your points in order in these situations.
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| XGID=-ac-bBD-B-B-bC-----cAbA-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 72.71% (G:28.29% B:1.46%) | 72.39% (G:28.61% B:1.65%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.29% (G:4.99% B:0.13%) | 27.61% (G:5.62% B:0.16%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.705 | +1.419 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +1.011 | ±0.008 (+1.003..+1.020) |
| Double/Take: | +1.203 (+0.191) | ±0.038 (+1.165..+1.241) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (-0.011) | |
| Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass | ||
| Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 5.6% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 34717085 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.6% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 12 minutes 46 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
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| XGID=-ac-bBD-B-B-bC-----cAbAb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.18% (G:27.46% B:1.50%) | 69.16% (G:27.26% B:1.62%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.82% (G:6.19% B:0.23%) | 30.84% (G:6.24% B:0.25%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.613 | +1.245 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.938 (-0.058) | ±0.017 (+0.921..+0.954) |
| Double/Take: | +0.996 | ±0.022 (+0.973..+1.018) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.004) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 34717085 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 64.3% | |
| Duration: 29 minutes 16 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2