Based on the variants below, I suggest that 8/2 7/2 works in Chuck's original position for two reasons:
1. White's blockade is weak enough that Blue can reasonably hope to escape his fifth wheel next turn instead of crunching further, and
2. the resulting forward position after 8/2 7/2 isn't bad.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 109 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 169
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---ABACC----c---bb-d-bCbB-:1:1:1:56:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 56 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/13 | eq: -0.514 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.62% (G:5.48% B:0.23%)
68.38% (G:30.65% B:1.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.524...-0.505) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/2 7/1 | eq: -0.617 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.97% (G:4.00% B:0.10%)
71.03% (G:32.05% B:3.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.627...-0.607) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/1 6/1 | eq: -0.621 (-0.107) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.41% (G:3.78% B:0.07%)
72.59% (G:29.67% B:2.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.630...-0.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 111 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 170
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---ABACBA---c---bc-c-bCbB-:1:1:1:56:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 56 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/13 | eq: -0.469 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.30% (G:5.58% B:0.25%)
67.70% (G:28.45% B:1.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.479...-0.460) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/2 7/2 | eq: -0.540 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.36% (G:4.37% B:0.15%)
69.64% (G:28.16% B:2.44%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.551...-0.529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/18 8/3 | eq: -0.541 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.74% (G:6.15% B:0.28%)
68.26% (G:34.82% B:1.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.551...-0.531) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/3 7/1 | eq: -0.546 (-0.077) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.46% (G:4.06% B:0.09%)
70.54% (G:27.20% B:2.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.556...-0.537) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 109 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 154
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---ABADBA---c---bb-d-bBbB-:1:1:1:56:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 56 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/13 | eq: -0.454 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.64% (G:5.62% B:0.26%)
69.36% (G:21.91% B:1.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.463...-0.446) - [91.8%]
Duration: 13 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/18 8/3 | eq: -0.463 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.11% (G:6.54% B:0.30%)
68.89% (G:25.98% B:1.16%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.472...-0.454) - [8.2%]
Duration: 11 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/2 7/2 | eq: -0.522 (-0.068) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.35% (G:4.90% B:0.13%)
71.65% (G:22.69% B:1.61%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.530...-0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release