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3a6a cube decision --- RO

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 4 March 2015, at 1:59 a.m.

In Response To: 3a6a cube decision (Chuck Bower)

OtB, JOH redoubled and I took. He immediately rolled big doubles to blot; I missed (with 42 after redoubling to 8), he rolled high-high to give me another chance and I missed again. After the game he quipped "a one game rollout says you clearly had a take!" 1296 more rollouts say otherwise. Borderline at 3a7a, in fact, between equals (which we aren't).





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 53
7 point match
pip: 95
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBBA------------ebfBb-:1:-1:-1:00:1:4:0:7:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 91.484% (G:8.045% B:0.325%) 90.825% (G:16.045% B:0.869%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 8.516% (G:0.002% B:0.000%) 9.175% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.8871 +1.3653
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.9633 (-0.0367)±0.0024 (+0.9609..+0.9657)
Redouble/Take:+1.1326 (+0.1326)±0.0067 (+1.1259..+1.1393)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75494493
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26 minutes 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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