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Possible four-score position

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 7 March 2015, at 4:23 p.m.

The position below arose in one of my games and according these rollouts, there is some chance that it is a "four-score position," i.e., a position for which the equilibrium play is different for money/DMP/GG/GS. There are at least two caveats.

1. Even if we take the rollouts at face value, the margins are very small in 3 out of 4 cases, so a longer/stronger rollout could yield a different verdict.

2. The blotty board is the sort of thing that sometimes induces XG to play like a donkey.

Still, even if this particular position doesn't pan out, perhaps some tinkering will fix that.


Unlimited:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
Unlimited Game
pip: 121
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---CBBBbB---bB----bdBcaa--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout18/5 8/3eq: -0.022
Player:
Opponent:
49.18% (G:11.02% B:0.32%)
50.82% (G:9.76% B:0.23%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.032...-0.011) - [58.4%]
Duration: 10 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout120/17 20/15eq: -0.025 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
49.81% (G:6.32% B:0.25%)
50.19% (G:7.39% B:0.14%)
Conf.: 0.009 (-0.035...-0.016) - [25.9%]
Duration: 11 minutes 52 seconds
3.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.027 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
49.48% (G:6.61% B:0.16%)
50.52% (G:3.59% B:0.12%)
Conf.: 0.009 (-0.036...-0.018) - [15.7%]
Duration: 11 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout120/15 8/5eq: -0.042 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
48.94% (G:12.85% B:0.46%)
51.06% (G:12.70% B:0.33%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.051...-0.032) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 34 seconds
5.Rollout113/5eq: -0.051 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
48.37% (G:9.07% B:0.30%)
51.63% (G:4.68% B:0.14%)
Conf.: 0.009 (-0.061...-0.042) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release


DMP:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
1 point match
pip: 121
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---CBBBbB---bB----bdBcaa--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout120/17 20/15eq: -0.012
Player:
Opponent:
49.42% (G:5.48% B:0.42%)
50.58% (G:5.75% B:0.19%)
Conf.: 0.003 (-0.015...-0.008) - [54.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.012 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
49.40% (G:6.14% B:0.23%)
50.60% (G:3.47% B:0.10%)
Conf.: 0.003 (-0.015...-0.009) - [40.5%]
Duration: 7 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 8/3eq: -0.014 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
49.28% (G:9.74% B:0.39%)
50.72% (G:8.92% B:0.22%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.018...-0.011) - [5.5%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds
4.Rollout120/15 8/5eq: -0.023 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
48.84% (G:11.75% B:0.50%)
51.16% (G:11.16% B:0.59%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.027...-0.020) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout113/5eq: -0.036 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
48.20% (G:9.95% B:0.48%)
51.80% (G:5.39% B:0.21%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.040...-0.033) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 55 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


GG:





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 117
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 121
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---CBBBbB---bB----bdBcaa--:0:0:1:53:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout120/15 8/5eq: +0.200
Player:
Opponent:
48.99% (G:11.03% B:0.54%)
51.01% (G:10.36% B:0.44%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.195...+0.205) - [91.1%]
Duration: 6 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 8/3eq: +0.195 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
49.59% (G:10.17% B:0.27%)
50.41% (G:8.65% B:0.16%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.190...+0.201) - [8.9%]
Duration: 6 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout120/17 8/3eq: +0.155 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
46.86% (G:10.92% B:0.49%)
53.14% (G:12.84% B:0.63%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.150...+0.161) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout113/5eq: +0.143 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
49.04% (G:8.12% B:0.52%)
50.96% (G:4.97% B:0.04%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.138...+0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
5.Rollout18/5 6/1eq: +0.123 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
46.93% (G:9.19% B:0.41%)
53.07% (G:11.16% B:0.48%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.117...+0.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 42 seconds
6.Rollout120/17 13/8eq: +0.116 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
46.20% (G:9.59% B:0.51%)
53.80% (G:10.72% B:0.51%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.111...+0.121) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 22 seconds
7.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: +0.111 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
49.37% (G:6.19% B:0.34%)
50.63% (G:3.86% B:0.09%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.107...+0.116) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 53 seconds
8.Rollout120/15 13/10eq: +0.096 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:
44.93% (G:9.85% B:0.55%)
55.07% (G:13.33% B:0.52%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.090...+0.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds
9.Rollout120/15 5/2eq: +0.086 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
44.62% (G:9.70% B:0.46%)
55.38% (G:16.87% B:1.11%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.080...+0.093) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 48 seconds
10.Rollout120/17 20/15eq: +0.075 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
49.32% (G:4.46% B:0.26%)
50.68% (G:5.01% B:0.08%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.071...+0.080) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 49 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


GS:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 121
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---CBBBbB---bB----bdBcaa--:0:0:1:53:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.080
Player:
Opponent:
49.52% (G:5.84% B:0.24%)
50.48% (G:3.50% B:0.19%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.084...-0.076) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.131 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
48.32% (G:11.01% B:0.76%)
51.68% (G:4.86% B:0.37%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.135...-0.127) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 09 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 8/3eq: -0.182 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
49.19% (G:11.46% B:0.62%)
50.81% (G:8.29% B:0.42%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.187...-0.177) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 31 seconds
4.Rollout120/17 20/15eq: -0.216 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
52.11% (G:13.42% B:1.49%)
47.89% (G:12.91% B:0.58%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.221...-0.211) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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