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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20150306B The Prime Factors
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM 20150306B The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)
Date: Saturday, 7 March 2015, at 5:26 p.m.
Waiting means counting on the parlay: no blot (guaranteed), no 6 or 55, blot, hit, win with the cube (eventually) from there. Most of those (potential) wins will occur with our 6-point open.
Staying seems like a free play (except for the wasted pip). But ~1/4 of the time we won't be able to run next time even if we wanted to.
Let's work backward to figure our wins. If we hit a shot, opp's will have 7 or (more likely?) 8 off. We'll quite likely have an open 6-point. Let's say we win 25% of games from there (cubeFUL). Hitting the shot happens 1/3 of the time, so 1/3 of 25% is 8%. Getting the shot at all happens maybe 20% of the time so that's down to 1.6% wins. Do we lose an extra 3% gammons by staying?
Let's say we stay and then roll one of our 25% that force us to stay longer. 80% (from above) of the time we don't even get the shot and another 14% miss a shot (so about 15/16 we don't hit). I estimate about 40% of the time they'll get a useful double meaning we'll (after staying) only have 3 rolls to get around (>17 pips) and off (>0 pips). Let's say we fail to get those 1/3 of the time. This scenario leads to us getting gammoned (25%)*(15/16)*(40%)*(1/3) or nearly 3%. Some of this scenario would get us gammoned anyway, even if we leave now. Let's call it 2.5%.
But I only counted the rolls where we're forced to stay. There are also those where we can leave next turn but choose to stay (remember, we need that in order to even get a shot).
If there were possible shots next turn (which there aren't) or if we were likely to hold our board (only 3/36 do that) then hanging around for the blot+hit+win parlay (starting two rolls downstream) would be tempting.
24/17
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