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bg% vs the win%. Mind Blocked!

Posted By: __1ERROR1__
Date: Saturday, 14 March 2015, at 3:04 a.m.

I have no idea what is going on here. Check the figures in xg. If you stay on 24pt, it will take you 8.5% win, while you will lose 20% bg. Considering the bg value AtS, I was wondering how did that 8.5% balance out the 20% as if running will cost you almost -0.3 equity!.... OTB, i calculated more or less the same numbers, but it seems my logic to "compare" the moves was totally wrong.... I know those numbers are cubeless; however, considering the score and position, I would not be able to recube till late bearoff positions. That being said, the cubefull and cubeless numbers should be more or less the same. Even if they are a little bit different, I think that 20% is still enough to win (or at least levels out) the trad off.

If you could prove me why the best move is not running by "those numbers" and "math" , I would really appreciate that.

 is AKORESTOS score: 2 pip: 6 7 point match pip: 159 score: 4 is 1ERROR1
XGID=-aC----b-aa--a-a-b-bbb----:1:-1:-1:62:2:4:0:7:3
to play 62

1.XG Roller++15/13 12/6eq: -2.179
 Player:Opponent: 8.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)91.68% (G:73.62% B:20.24%)
2.XG Roller++16/10 15/13eq: -2.180 (-0.001)
 Player:Opponent: 8.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)91.70% (G:73.66% B:20.26%)
3.XG Roller++12/6 10/8eq: -2.183 (-0.004)
 Player:Opponent: 8.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)91.67% (G:73.94% B:20.20%)
4.XG Roller++16/10 12/10eq: -2.204 (-0.024)
 Player:Opponent: 8.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)91.79% (G:74.85% B:20.61%)
5.XG Roller++24/16eq: -2.467 (-0.288)
 Player:Opponent: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)100.00% (G:100.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.205.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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