I have no idea what is going on here. Check the figures in xg. If you stay on 24pt, it will take you 8.5% win, while you will lose 20% bg. Considering the bg value AtS, I was wondering how did that 8.5% balance out the 20% as if running will cost you almost -0.3 equity!.... OTB, i calculated more or less the same numbers, but it seems my logic to "compare" the moves was totally wrong.... I know those numbers are cubeless; however, considering the score and position, I would not be able to recube till late bearoff positions. That being said, the cubefull and cubeless numbers should be more or less the same. Even if they are a little bit different, I think that 20% is still enough to win (or at least levels out) the trad off.
If you could prove me why the best move is not running by "those numbers" and "math" , I would really appreciate that.
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| XGID=-aC----b-aa--a-a-b-bbb----:1:-1:-1:62:2:4:0:7:3 | ||||
 to play 62 | ||||
is AKORESTOS| 1. | XG Roller++ | 15/13 12/6 | eq: -2.179 | |||
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| 2. | XG Roller++ | 16/10 15/13 | eq: -2.180 (-0.001) | |||
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| 3. | XG Roller++ | 12/6 10/8 | eq: -2.183 (-0.004) | |||
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| 4. | XG Roller++ | 16/10 12/10 | eq: -2.204 (-0.024) | |||
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| 5. | XG Roller++ | 24/16 | eq: -2.467 (-0.288) | |||
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.205.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2