[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

bg% vs the win%. Mind Blocked!

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 14 March 2015, at 6:25 a.m.

In Response To: bg% vs the win%. Mind Blocked! (John O'Hagan)

An easier way to see why staying is correct is to compare the gain to the loss from staying.

You gain when you hit and win or hit and lose a single game.

You lose when you stay and lose a bg.

You break even when you stay and lose a g.

Hit and win increases your MWC from 25% to 84%, a 59% gain. This occurs 8.32% so you gain about 5% MWC.

Hit and lose a single game gives you 50% MWC vs. the 25% if you had run. This occurs about 18% of the time, so you gain about 4.5% MWC.

Total gain is then 9.5% MWC.

The loss when you stay and lose a bg is 25%. This occurs about 20% of the time so the total loss is about 5% MWC.

So staying gives you 4.5% more MWC.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.