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BGonline.org Forums
bg% vs the win%. Mind Blocked!
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: bg% vs the win%. Mind Blocked! (John O'Hagan)
Date: Saturday, 14 March 2015, at 6:25 a.m.
An easier way to see why staying is correct is to compare the gain to the loss from staying.
You gain when you hit and win or hit and lose a single game.
You lose when you stay and lose a bg.
You break even when you stay and lose a g.
Hit and win increases your MWC from 25% to 84%, a 59% gain. This occurs 8.32% so you gain about 5% MWC.
Hit and lose a single game gives you 50% MWC vs. the 25% if you had run. This occurs about 18% of the time, so you gain about 4.5% MWC.
Total gain is then 9.5% MWC.
The loss when you stay and lose a bg is 25%. This occurs about 20% of the time so the total loss is about 5% MWC.
So staying gives you 4.5% more MWC.
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