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Bear off cube action (Score related)

Posted By: mochy
Date: Wednesday, 18 March 2015, at 3:50 a.m.

In Response To: Bear off cube action (Score related) (Mochy)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 37
5 point match
pip: 25
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BACC--------------bbca---:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 84.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 84.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 15.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 15.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.698 +1.261
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.878 (-0.122)}0.000 (+0.878..+0.879)
Redouble/Take:+1.041 (+0.041)}0.000 (+1.041..+1.041)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6869235
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Search interval: Huge
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.201.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Thank you all for sharing your insight.

The actual EPC is 38 vs 43.9.

If I use John's formula, I have got 84% which is very close to actual 85%.

I also like Stick's EPC adjustment table.

You are the expert!

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