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Let's learn more from all the data

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Wednesday, 18 March 2015, at 3:37 p.m.

Now that we have all these recorded matches, it would be fun to see someone put everything into some kind of excel sheet or program and tell us:

1. How to convert luck to PR: for example, if someone plays at 2 PR better, how much luck it would take to overcome that and win.

2. What percent of the time the better player wins. How much more often a 2 PR better player wins, and how much more often a 4 PR better player wins, and so on.

3. If the better players really do have a higher luck factor according to XG.

4. How much cube errors affected the outcome of the match compared with checker play errors.

5. What the average PR for checker and cube errors is for a -4 PR player compared to the average PR for checker and cube errors is for a 4-7 PR Player (in otherwords, are the top players losing more on checker or cube errors, and are the lower players at the same ratio)?

6. What percent of the time the better player wins at DMP (including 2away/2away). And how this percentage changes as the PR difference increases.

7. What is the average PR in a DMP game for a -4 PR player and what is the average PR in a DMP game for a 4-7 PR player?

8. How much the luck factor in the PR game affects the outcome of the match relative to the entire game skill and luck factors?

9. What is the PR for -4 PR players for the first 3 moves of every game compared to the PR for 4-7 PR players for the first 3 moves.

Then, of course, we could get into much more sophisticated analyses of how -4 PR players do in playing and defending back games compared to others; how they do bearing off with contact, etc. etc.

I have no doubt that the software capabilities are there to get the above information, and I believe it would be very interesting to see. I guess we are not yet there in terms of being able to take this information out of XG automatically and dump it into a program, and of course, the time and labor to do this by hand, and the potential for errors, probably makes this impractical to do at this time. I hope someone can prove me wrong.

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