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Too Good ? - A little help please

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 20 March 2015, at 3:34 p.m.

In Response To: Too Good ? - A little help please (MandM1951)

A good question to ask yourself is "how can I possibly lose this one?" and if the answer is "seems really unlikely" then roll. even if your gammon chances are slim, if you can't possibly lose you might as well take a shake ansd see waht happens.

Another question is "Are ther market gainers?" i.e. is there some sequence that would turn this into a take. If there are you might think about cashing, but if not, just roll - the worst that can happen is you cash next turn.

In 1) white is stuck behind a full prime and blue will either enter (possibly hitting) or sit on the bar until she crunches. So how can you lose?

in 2) even if white makes the GP it's still a cash, so roll and see what happens.

in 3) white will be about 77% to win if blue manages to close her out - I think that's a cash AtS but it might be a close take. Either way, blue has a lot of work to do to get there, so wait to cash until gammons are off the table.

In 4, white has an ace point game with a third checker back. A broad rule of thumb is that ace point games are cashes with two back and TG with a third man back.

in 5) the third checker back gives some gammon chances while blue should have many opportunities to cash before there are any market gainers.

HTH. Hopefully some better players than I can add additional comments.

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